Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans on stable run prevention more than one extreme carrying pitch trait.
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026
Lambert, Peter
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team HOU
Archetype Volatile contact
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.95 |
| ERA current pace | 3.79 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.87 |
| Observed weight | 46% |
ERA
2.82
3.32
3.87
4.43
4.93
FIP
2.22
2.91
3.67
4.43
5.12
K%
18.5%
19.9%
21.4%
23.0%
24.4%
BB%
7.0%
7.9%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%10.8%
25
-38 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.7%
65
+26 vs proj
Fastball velo94.3
49
Hard-hit allowed42.5%
31
K%21.6%
45
Whiff%23.3%
52
+15 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.310
54
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+101
43
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
6Pitches
2026Season
29%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 29.7% | 200 | 105 | qualified |
| SL | 28.8% | 194 | 105 | limited sample |
| CH | 22.9% | 154 | 93 | limited sample |
| FC | 11.1% | 75 | 105 | limited sample |
| SI | 7.4% | 50 | 95 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.58 |
| K% Δ | +0.016 |
| Sample | 48.7 IP |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 68.0 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 307 | -- | -- |
| K% | 20.0% | 16.0% to 25.0% | +/- 4.5% |
| BB% | 7.8% | 5.3% to 10.9% | +/- 2.8% |
| Whiff% | 21.5% | 18.2% to 26.4% | +/- 4.1% |
| HR/9 | 1.51 | 0.75 to 2.06 | +/- 0.65 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.300 | 0.261 to 0.337 | +/- 0.038 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.3% | 5.2% to 11.0% | +/- 2.9% |
| ERA | 4.37 | 3.06 to 6.04 | +/- 1.49 |
| FIP | 4.20 | 3.15 to 7.24 | +/- 2.05 |
| WHIP | 1.317 | 1.115 to 1.627 | +/- 0.256 |
vs LHH
521 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.303 |
| K% | 16.6% |
| BB% | 8.7% |
| Barrel | 7.1% |
vs RHH
622 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.292 |
| K% | 17.9% |
| BB% | 6.6% |
| Barrel | 7.9% |