Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026

Lambert, Peter

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.0% K%
Range
16.0% to 25.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
63
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
56
Arsenal6 metrics
45
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.95
ERA current pace3.14
ERA rolling p503.46
Observed weight61%
ERA
2.38 2.89 3.46 4.02 4.53
FIP
2.59 3.29 4.06 4.84 5.54
K%
19.4% 20.6% 21.9% 23.2% 24.3%
BB%
6.9% 7.7% 8.5% 9.4% 10.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.12
79
ERA3.14
73
BB%9.2%
42 -21 vs proj
K%22.3%
48 +15 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.287
75
Barrel allowed7.7%
49
Fastball velo93.9
40
Hard-hit allowed37.8%
58
Whiff%21.7%
40
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+105
70
Mithrandir Stuff+101
42
Slider Stuff+105
70
Changeup Stuff+94
9
Cutter Stuff+103
63
Sinker Stuff+97
18
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lambert, Peter · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.287 2026-07-05: 0.2982026-07-06: 0.2982026-07-07: 0.2932026-07-08: 0.2932026-07-09: 0.2932026-07-10: 0.2932026-07-11: 0.2932026-07-12: 0.2932026-07-13: 0.2872026-07-14: 0.2872026-07-15: 0.2872026-07-16: 0.287 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lambert, Peter · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lambert, Peter · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 31.1%Changeup: 21.8%Slider: 16.4%Cutter: 9.9%Sinker: 9.5%Sweeper: 7.8% FF31% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 31%CH 22%SL 16%FC 10%SI 10%ST 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lambert, Peter · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 31% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.0 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 22% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 87.2 mphCH87 mphSlider: 16% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.7 mphSL86 mphCutter: 10% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 91.6 mphFC92 mphSinker: 10% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 93.3 mphSI93 mphSweeper: 8% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 82.3 mphST82 mphSlurve: 3% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 79.5 mphSV80 mphCurveball: 1% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 64″ drop, 77.9 mphCU78 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 29.7% 228 105 qualified
SL 27.6% 212 105 qualified
CH 22.8% 175 94 limited sample
FC 10.8% 83 103 limited sample
SI 9.0% 69 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projection leans on stable run prevention more than one extreme carrying pitch trait.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.23
K% Δ+0.023
Sample89.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.7----
Batters Faced305----
K%20.0%16.0% to 25.0%+/- 4.5%
BB%7.8%5.2% to 10.9%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%21.5%18.2% to 26.4%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.510.75 to 2.06+/- 0.65
xwOBA Against0.3000.261 to 0.337+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed8.3%5.2% to 11.0%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.373.06 to 6.04+/- 1.49
FIP4.203.15 to 7.24+/- 2.05
WHIP1.3171.115 to 1.627+/- 0.256
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

521 career BF

xwOBA0.303
K%16.6%
BB%8.7%
Barrel7.1%
vs RHH

622 career BF

xwOBA0.292
K%17.9%
BB%6.6%
Barrel7.9%