Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Mize, Casey

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
20.9% K%
Range
17.7% to 27.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
81
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
75
Arsenal4 metrics
57
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.67
ERA current pace2.79
ERA rolling p503.15
Observed weight59%
ERA
2.25 2.68 3.15 3.63 4.06
FIP
2.78 3.04 3.32 3.60 3.86
K%
20.6% 21.8% 23.2% 24.6% 25.8%
BB%
5.0% 5.6% 6.3% 7.0% 7.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.08
84
ERA2.79
82
BB%6.1%
86
K%25.0%
68 +30 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.274
87 +35 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.0%
76 +40 vs proj
Fastball velo93.6
36
Hard-hit allowed34.3%
81
Whiff%26.6%
75 +36 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+101
37
Mithrandir Stuff+103
59
Slider Stuff+105
69
Sinker Stuff+104
65
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Mize, Casey · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.274 2026-07-06: 0.2632026-07-07: 0.2712026-07-08: 0.2712026-07-09: 0.2712026-07-10: 0.2712026-07-11: 0.2712026-07-12: 0.2712026-07-13: 0.2742026-07-14: 0.2742026-07-15: 0.2742026-07-16: 0.2742026-07-17: 0.274 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Mize, Casey · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mize, Casey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 35.0%Split-Finger: 24.1%Slider: 23.9%Sinker: 11.3%Slurve: 5.7% FF35% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 35%FS 24%SL 24%SI 11%SV 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mize, Casey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 35% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.5 mphFF94 mphSplit-Finger: 24% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 87.8 mphFS88 mphSlider: 24% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 87.7 mphSL88 mphSinker: 11% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 93.7 mphSI94 mphSlurve: 6% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 81.7 mphSV82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 45.4% 231 101 qualified
SL 40.7% 207 105 qualified
SI 13.9% 71 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 33%, Split-Finger 24%, Slider 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.28
K% Δ+0.041
Sample83.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings72.8----
Batters Faced316----
K%20.9%17.7% to 27.0%+/- 4.6%
BB%6.7%4.7% to 8.9%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%21.6%19.5% to 26.0%+/- 3.3%
HR/91.280.93 to 1.98+/- 0.53
xwOBA Against0.3110.286 to 0.339+/- 0.027
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.5% to 12.3%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.073.20 to 5.72+/- 1.26
FIP4.023.12 to 4.61+/- 0.75
WHIP1.3401.127 to 1.580+/- 0.227
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1039 career BF

xwOBA0.293
K%19.7%
BB%6.1%
Barrel9.0%
vs RHH

1029 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%19.1%
BB%5.7%
Barrel9.1%