Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CWS · 2026

Hudson, Bryan

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
23.0% K%
Range
16.9% to 30.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team CWS Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.91
ERA current pace1.37
ERA rolling p503.05
Observed weight34%
ERA
1.21 2.08 3.05 4.01 4.88
FIP
2.70 3.17 3.69 4.21 4.68
K%
18.3% 20.6% 23.1% 25.6% 27.9%
BB%
7.0% 8.3% 9.8% 11.3% 12.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%9.7%
35
Barrel allowed3.8%
91 +40 vs proj
Fastball velo91.6
14
Hard-hit allowed33.8%
81
K%23.4%
56
Whiff%23.7%
56
xwOBA allowed0.260
89 +31 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+101
39
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 66%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Hudson, Bryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2752026-05-19: 0.2822026-05-21: 0.2782026-05-23: 0.2782026-05-24: 0.2712026-05-25: 0.2712026-05-26: 0.2742026-05-28: 0.2712026-05-29: 0.2712026-05-30: 0.2712026-05-31: 0.2672026-06-01: 0.260 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hudson, Bryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 55%55%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hudson, Bryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 65.5%Sweeper: 22.9%Sinker: 8.5%Cutter: 3.0% MIX FF 66%ST 23%SI 9%FC 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hudson, Bryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.2, IVB 1.6FFST: HB 0.1, IVB 3.9STSI: HB 0.5, IVB 2.5SIFC: HB -0.1, IVB 2.9FC horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 64.8% 295 102 qualified
SL 23.3% 106 97 limited sample
SI 9.0% 41 94 limited sample
FC 2.9% 13 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 66%, Sweeper 21%, Sinker 7%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.44
K% Δ+0.004
Sample28.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings34.3----
Batters Faced146----
K%23.0%16.9% to 30.4%+/- 6.8%
BB%9.6%6.4% to 14.1%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%22.1%15.7% to 27.0%+/- 5.6%
HR/91.270.56 to 2.04+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3060.236 to 0.357+/- 0.060
Barrel% Allowed7.7%3.6% to 11.1%+/- 3.7%
ERA3.810.65 to 5.60+/- 2.47
FIP4.112.75 to 5.42+/- 1.33
WHIP1.2460.942 to 1.608+/- 0.333
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

149 career BF

xwOBA0.262
K%22.2%
BB%9.3%
Barrel6.9%
vs RHH

251 career BF

xwOBA0.269
K%21.3%
BB%8.8%
Barrel6.8%