Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CWS · 2026

Hudson, Bryan

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
23.0% K%
Range
16.9% to 30.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team CWS Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
58
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
55
Arsenal5 metrics
27
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.91
ERA current pace2.19
ERA rolling p503.18
Observed weight43%
ERA
1.41 2.25 3.18 4.11 4.94
FIP
2.76 3.21 3.71 4.22 4.67
K%
18.4% 20.4% 22.6% 24.9% 26.9%
BB%
7.4% 8.6% 9.9% 11.2% 12.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.36
43
ERA2.19
94
BB%10.0%
33
K%22.2%
48
xwOBA allowed0.291
72
Barrel allowed5.1%
84 +34 vs proj
Fastball velo91.7
13
Hard-hit allowed35.9%
69
Whiff%21.3%
37
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+102
47
Mithrandir Stuff+101
44
Cutter Stuff+94
4
Sinker Stuff+94
11
Slider Stuff+99
30
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 67%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Hudson, Bryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.291 2026-07-05: 0.2962026-07-06: 0.2962026-07-07: 0.2962026-07-08: 0.2962026-07-09: 0.2962026-07-10: 0.2942026-07-11: 0.2942026-07-12: 0.2942026-07-13: 0.2912026-07-14: 0.2912026-07-15: 0.2912026-07-16: 0.291 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hudson, Bryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 54%54%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hudson, Bryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 67.0%Sweeper: 24.8%Sinker: 6.0%Cutter: 2.2% FF67% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 67%ST 25%SI 6%FC 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hudson, Bryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 67% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 91.9 mphFF92 mphSweeper: 25% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 80.5 mphST81 mphSinker: 6% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.9 mphSI90 mphCutter: 2% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 84.3 mphFC84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 66.2% 368 102 qualified
SL 24.1% 134 99 limited sample
SI 7.4% 41 94 limited sample
FC 2.3% 13 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 66%, Sweeper 21%, Sinker 7%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.56
K% Δ-0.008
Sample40.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings33.7----
Batters Faced143----
K%23.0%16.9% to 30.4%+/- 6.8%
BB%9.6%6.4% to 14.1%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%22.1%15.7% to 27.0%+/- 5.6%
HR/91.270.56 to 2.04+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3060.236 to 0.357+/- 0.060
Barrel% Allowed7.7%3.6% to 11.1%+/- 3.7%
ERA3.750.65 to 5.60+/- 2.47
FIP4.112.75 to 5.42+/- 1.33
WHIP1.2460.942 to 1.608+/- 0.333
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

149 career BF

xwOBA0.262
K%22.2%
BB%9.3%
Barrel6.9%
vs RHH

251 career BF

xwOBA0.269
K%21.3%
BB%8.8%
Barrel6.8%