Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CWS · 2026

Hudson, Bryan

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
23.0% K%
Range
16.9% to 30.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team CWS Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
65
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
57
Arsenal5 metrics
31
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.92
ERA current pace3.38
ERA rolling p503.62
Observed weight55%
ERA
1.87 2.70 3.62 4.55 5.38
FIP
2.81 3.26 3.76 4.26 4.70
K%
18.3% 19.9% 21.8% 23.6% 25.3%
BB%
6.2% 7.2% 8.3% 9.3% 10.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.36
46
ERA3.38
73
BB%6.9%
78 +36 vs proj
K%20.8%
41 -16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.277
85 +26 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.9%
87 +41 vs proj
Fastball velo91.8
13
Hard-hit allowed37.4%
57
Whiff%21.1%
37
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+103
56
Mithrandir Stuff+102
52
Slider Stuff+100
35
Cutter Stuff+93
3
Sinker Stuff+94
9
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 66%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Hudson, Bryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.277 2026-09-13: 0.2612026-09-14: 0.2612026-09-18: 0.2612026-09-19: 0.2732026-09-20: 0.2732026-09-21: 0.2732026-09-22: 0.2732026-09-23: 0.2732026-09-24: 0.2752026-09-25: 0.2752026-09-26: 0.2732026-09-27: 0.277 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hudson, Bryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 56%56%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hudson, Bryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 66.4%Sweeper: 28.3%Sinker: 3.9%Cutter: 1.4% FF66% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 66%ST 28%SI 4%FC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hudson, Bryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 66% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 91.9 mphFF92 mphSweeper: 28% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 79.9 mphST80 mphSinker: 4% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.9 mphSI90 mphCutter: 1% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 84.3 mphFC84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 65.8% 506 103 qualified
SL 27.2% 209 100 qualified
SI 5.3% 41 94 limited sample
FC 1.7% 13 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 66%, Sweeper 21%, Sinker 7%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.37
K% Δ-0.022
Sample65.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings33.3----
Batters Faced142----
K%23.0%16.9% to 30.4%+/- 6.8%
BB%9.6%6.4% to 14.1%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%22.1%15.7% to 27.0%+/- 5.6%
HR/91.270.56 to 2.04+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3060.236 to 0.357+/- 0.060
Barrel% Allowed7.7%3.6% to 11.1%+/- 3.7%
ERA3.750.65 to 5.60+/- 2.47
FIP4.112.75 to 5.42+/- 1.33
WHIP1.2460.942 to 1.608+/- 0.333
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

149 career BF

xwOBA0.262
K%22.2%
BB%9.3%
Barrel6.9%
vs RHH

251 career BF

xwOBA0.269
K%21.3%
BB%8.8%
Barrel6.8%