Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Feltner, Ryan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.2% K%
Range
16.6% to 28.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Volatile contact Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
22
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
33
Arsenal6 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.04
ERA current pace5.57
ERA rolling p505.13
Observed weight71%
ERA
3.77 4.41 5.13 5.84 6.48
FIP
3.97 4.32 4.71 5.10 5.46
K%
15.7% 16.8% 17.9% 19.1% 20.2%
BB%
8.2% 8.9% 9.6% 10.3% 11.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.53
18
ERA5.57
16
BB%9.9%
39
K%16.6%
13 -30 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.337
25 -15 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.2%
23 -33 vs proj
Fastball velo94.6
53
Hard-hit allowed36.9%
62
Whiff%21.9%
45
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+101
42
Fastball Stuff+101
43
Mithrandir Stuff+102
45
Slider Stuff+104
71
Curveball Stuff+104
82
Sinker Stuff+98
21
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Feltner, Ryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.337 2026-09-13: 0.3442026-09-14: 0.3442026-09-18: 0.3412026-09-19: 0.3412026-09-20: 0.3412026-09-21: 0.3392026-09-22: 0.3392026-09-23: 0.3392026-09-24: 0.3392026-09-25: 0.3392026-09-26: 0.3392026-09-27: 0.337 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Feltner, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Feltner, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 28.4%Slider: 23.0%Changeup: 18.3%Sinker: 14.2%Sweeper: 10.4%Curveball: 5.7% FF28% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 28%SL 23%CH 18%SI 14%ST 10%CU 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Feltner, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 94.8 mphFF95 mphSlider: 23% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.1 mphSL89 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 85.1 mphCH85 mphSinker: 14% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 94.2 mphSI94 mphSweeper: 10% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 82.0 mphST82 mphCurveball: 6% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 51″ drop, 79.5 mphCU79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 29.9% 300 104 qualified
FB 27.8% 279 101 qualified
CH 20.5% 206 101 qualified
SI 14.0% 141 98 limited sample
CB 7.8% 78 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.313 vs 0.289 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 34%, Changeup 18%, Slider 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.17
K% Δ-0.046
Sample129.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings71.3----
Batters Faced313----
K%21.2%16.6% to 28.6%+/- 6.0%
BB%8.7%5.4% to 11.0%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%22.8%19.6% to 28.5%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.420.82 to 2.04+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.3200.271 to 0.356+/- 0.042
Barrel% Allowed7.1%4.3% to 9.3%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.402.65 to 6.19+/- 1.77
FIP4.153.19 to 5.13+/- 0.97
WHIP1.3721.116 to 1.689+/- 0.287
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

828 career BF

xwOBA0.313
K%18.2%
BB%8.9%
Barrel5.5%
vs RHH

780 career BF

xwOBA0.289
K%20.2%
BB%6.9%
Barrel6.2%