Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 12 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Suarez, Robert

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.7% K%
Range
17.2% to 33.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Balanced reliever Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-12
87
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
83
Arsenal5 metrics
77
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-12
ERA preseason3.68
ERA current pace0.65
ERA rolling p502.65
Observed weight34%
ERA
1.25 1.91 2.65 3.39 4.05
FIP
2.34 2.75 3.20 3.66 4.07
K%
18.2% 20.8% 23.7% 26.6% 29.3%
BB%
3.6% 4.7% 6.0% 7.2% 8.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-12
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.88
96
ERA0.65
99
BB%4.8%
96 +25 vs proj
K%24.2%
62
xwOBA allowed0.272
84 +30 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.7%
86 +46 vs proj
Fastball velo98.4
98
Hard-hit allowed36.0%
69
Whiff%23.4%
54 +15 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-12
Changeup Stuff+108
89
Cutter Stuff+101
38
Fastball Stuff+111
95
Mithrandir Stuff+109
95
Sinker Stuff+104
67
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 45%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Suarez, Robert · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.272 2026-06-01: 0.2662026-06-02: 0.2662026-06-03: 0.2662026-06-04: 0.2652026-06-05: 0.2692026-06-06: 0.2752026-06-07: 0.2752026-06-08: 0.2752026-06-09: 0.2752026-06-10: 0.2752026-06-11: 0.2722026-06-12: 0.272 2026-06-01 2026-06-12 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Suarez, Robert · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 12%12%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Suarez, Robert · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 45.4%Changeup: 31.5%Cutter: 15.3%Sinker: 7.8% FF45% · 99 mphprimary pitch FF 45%CH 32%FC 15%SI 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Suarez, Robert · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 45% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 98.6 mphFF99 mphChangeup: 32% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 90.5 mphCH91 mphCutter: 15% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 96.0 mphFC96 mphSinker: 8% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 97.5 mphSI97 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 50.7% 185 111 limited sample
CH 31.0% 113 108 limited sample
FC 13.7% 50 101 limited sample
SI 4.7% 17 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 63%, Changeup 24%, Sinker 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.78
K% Δ+0.005
Sample32.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings40.0----
Batters Faced158----
K%23.7%17.2% to 33.3%+/- 8.0%
BB%7.3%4.2% to 11.0%+/- 3.4%
Whiff%21.7%17.3% to 28.0%+/- 5.4%
HR/90.990.45 to 1.93+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3100.251 to 0.353+/- 0.051
Barrel% Allowed8.5%4.3% to 13.8%+/- 4.7%
ERA3.431.83 to 6.08+/- 2.13
FIP3.402.74 to 5.07+/- 1.16
WHIP1.1550.831 to 1.531+/- 0.350
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

426 career BF

xwOBA0.291
K%23.1%
BB%7.4%
Barrel9.1%
vs RHH

480 career BF

xwOBA0.282
K%22.1%
BB%4.8%
Barrel9.7%