Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026

Gil, Luis

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.9% K%
Range
18.2% to 30.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
17
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
23
Arsenal5 metrics
42
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.86
ERA current pace5.18
ERA rolling p504.39
Observed weight40%
ERA
3.49 3.92 4.39 4.86 5.28
FIP
4.25 4.70 5.21 5.72 6.18
K%
16.2% 18.1% 20.1% 22.2% 24.0%
BB%
8.9% 9.9% 11.1% 12.2% 13.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.46
28
ERA5.18
23
BB%12.5%
15
K%16.2%
12 -44 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.362
8 -28 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.3%
37
Fastball velo95.4
66
Hard-hit allowed45.9%
6
Whiff%17.8%
11 -46 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+105
69
Changeup Stuff+105
76
Mithrandir Stuff+102
46
Sinker Stuff+90
5
Slider Stuff+96
13
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 52%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gil, Luis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.362 2026-09-12: 0.3672026-09-13: 0.3672026-09-14: 0.3672026-09-18: 0.3662026-09-19: 0.3592026-09-20: 0.3592026-09-21: 0.3522026-09-22: 0.3522026-09-23: 0.3522026-09-24: 0.3522026-09-25: 0.3522026-09-26: 0.362 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gil, Luis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gil, Luis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 51.5%Slider: 22.6%Changeup: 18.8%Sinker: 7.1% FF52% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 52%SL 23%CH 19%SI 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gil, Luis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 52% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 95.5 mphFF96 mphSlider: 23% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 86.3 mphSL86 mphChangeup: 19% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 90.2 mphCH90 mphSinker: 7% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 94.5 mphSI95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 50.5% 230 105 qualified
SL 21.1% 96 96 limited sample
CH 18.5% 84 105 limited sample
SI 9.9% 45 90 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.297 vs 0.269 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 51%, Slider 26%, Changeup 23%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.95
K% Δ-0.066
Sample35.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings139.5----
Batters Faced604----
K%22.9%18.2% to 30.3%+/- 6.0%
BB%11.0%8.0% to 13.6%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%23.4%20.4% to 28.8%+/- 4.2%
HR/91.390.74 to 1.95+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.3240.266 to 0.347+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed8.4%5.5% to 11.4%+/- 3.0%
ERA4.232.54 to 5.03+/- 1.24
FIP4.482.94 to 5.61+/- 1.34
WHIP1.3671.037 to 1.556+/- 0.260
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

539 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%19.7%
BB%12.8%
Barrel9.2%
vs RHH

609 career BF

xwOBA0.269
K%22.5%
BB%9.7%
Barrel7.3%