Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Bazardo, Eduard

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
24.0% K%
Range
18.7% to 32.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
44
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
42
Arsenal4 metrics
52
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.47
ERA current pace3.98
ERA rolling p503.75
Observed weight55%
ERA
2.31 2.99 3.75 4.51 5.19
FIP
3.68 4.05 4.47 4.89 5.27
K%
20.2% 21.8% 23.7% 25.6% 27.2%
BB%
6.1% 7.1% 8.2% 9.2% 10.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.43
31
ERA3.98
53
BB%8.1%
60
K%22.7%
55
xwOBA allowed0.340
22 -41 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.4%
21
Fastball velo95.7
71
Hard-hit allowed40.6%
34
Whiff%20.4%
30
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Mithrandir Stuff+105
76
Sinker Stuff+101
36
Slider Stuff+106
83
Fastball Stuff+96
15
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 62%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bazardo, Eduard · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.340 2026-09-12: 0.3322026-09-13: 0.3322026-09-14: 0.3322026-09-18: 0.3332026-09-19: 0.3332026-09-20: 0.3332026-09-21: 0.3322026-09-22: 0.3322026-09-23: 0.3362026-09-24: 0.3362026-09-25: 0.3362026-09-26: 0.340 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bazardo, Eduard · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 53%53%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 20%20%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bazardo, Eduard · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 61.5%Sweeper: 34.3%Split-Finger: 2.2%4-Seam Fastball: 1.9% SI62% · 96 mphprimary pitch SI 62%ST 34%FS 2%FF 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bazardo, Eduard · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 62% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 95.7 mphSI96 mphSweeper: 34% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 83.6 mphST84 mphSplit-Finger: 2% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 91.0 mphFS91 mph4-Seam Fastball: 2% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 95.2 mphFF95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 62.8% 485 101 qualified
SL 35.4% 273 106 qualified
FB 1.8% 14 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 43%, Sweeper 41%, 4-Seam Fastball 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.59
K% Δ-0.012
Sample67.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings38.4----
Batters Faced154----
K%24.0%18.7% to 32.6%+/- 6.9%
BB%8.0%5.1% to 12.9%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%20.5%14.9% to 24.8%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.220.55 to 2.08+/- 0.77
xwOBA Against0.3030.245 to 0.356+/- 0.056
Barrel% Allowed8.5%3.5% to 13.9%+/- 5.2%
ERA3.391.74 to 5.80+/- 2.03
FIP4.002.85 to 5.09+/- 1.12
WHIP1.1720.894 to 1.477+/- 0.292
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

280 career BF

xwOBA0.280
K%22.5%
BB%8.4%
Barrel10.3%
vs RHH

366 career BF

xwOBA0.262
K%23.6%
BB%6.2%
Barrel8.7%