Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Seabold, Connor

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.7% K%
Range
14.3% to 25.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 30 Status IL-60
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
35
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
41
Arsenal5 metrics
27
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.52
ERA current pace5.25
ERA rolling p504.77
Observed weight34%
ERA
3.05 3.87 4.77 5.68 6.49
FIP
2.95 3.50 4.11 4.73 5.28
K%
14.7% 16.6% 18.6% 20.7% 22.6%
BB%
5.4% 6.4% 7.5% 8.6% 9.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.68
8
ERA5.25
21
BB%7.1%
75 +21 vs proj
K%16.7%
14
xwOBA allowed0.308
57
Barrel allowed5.6%
80 +38 vs proj
Fastball velo93.6
35
Hard-hit allowed35.6%
72
Whiff%16.6%
7 -42 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+100
33
Cutter Stuff+85
0
Fastball Stuff+103
57
Mithrandir Stuff+100
29
Slider Stuff+97
18
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 52%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Seabold, Connor · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.308 2026-09-12: 0.3082026-09-13: 0.3082026-09-14: 0.3082026-09-18: 0.3082026-09-19: 0.3082026-09-20: 0.3082026-09-21: 0.3082026-09-22: 0.3082026-09-23: 0.3082026-09-24: 0.3082026-09-25: 0.3082026-09-26: 0.308 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Seabold, Connor · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Seabold, Connor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 51.7%Changeup: 21.2%Slider: 16.1%Cutter: 11.0% FF52% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 52%CH 21%SL 16%FC 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Seabold, Connor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 52% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.6 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 21% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 83.0 mphCH83 mphSlider: 16% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 82.9 mphSL83 mphCutter: 11% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 86.9 mphFC87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 53.9% 179 103 limited sample
CH 23.2% 77 100 limited sample
SL 18.4% 61 97 limited sample
FC 4.5% 15 85 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 52%, Changeup 26%, Cutter 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.08
K% Δ-0.021
Sample25.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings63.9----
Batters Faced294----
K%18.7%14.3% to 25.5%+/- 5.6%
BB%8.6%5.5% to 11.1%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%22.3%18.0% to 27.5%+/- 4.8%
HR/91.260.99 to 2.59+/- 0.80
xwOBA Against0.3080.260 to 0.341+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed7.9%5.1% to 13.4%+/- 4.1%
ERA4.172.66 to 7.30+/- 2.32
FIP4.333.21 to 6.36+/- 1.57
WHIP1.4401.176 to 1.842+/- 0.333
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

302 career BF

xwOBA0.279
K%14.8%
BB%8.2%
Barrel11.1%
vs RHH

319 career BF

xwOBA0.266
K%16.3%
BB%6.7%
Barrel9.1%