Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIN · 2026

Ryan, Joe

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
25.3% K%
Range
21.9% to 31.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIN Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
75
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
55
Arsenal5 metrics
85
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.92
ERA current pace3.84
ERA rolling p503.86
Observed weight73%
ERA
2.81 3.31 3.86 4.42 4.91
FIP
3.13 3.40 3.70 4.00 4.26
K%
23.7% 24.7% 25.8% 26.9% 27.9%
BB%
4.1% 4.6% 5.1% 5.6% 6.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.17
77
ERA3.84
57
BB%5.1%
95
K%25.6%
74
xwOBA allowed0.297
70
Barrel allowed10.3%
13
Fastball velo93.4
31
Hard-hit allowed42.1%
24
Whiff%23.0%
53
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Curveball Stuff+104
82
Fastball Stuff+107
85
Mithrandir Stuff+107
93
Slider Stuff+105
80
Sinker Stuff+107
82
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ryan, Joe · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.297 2026-09-12: 0.2902026-09-13: 0.2902026-09-14: 0.2962026-09-18: 0.2962026-09-19: 0.2962026-09-20: 0.2962026-09-21: 0.2982026-09-22: 0.2982026-09-23: 0.2982026-09-24: 0.2982026-09-25: 0.2982026-09-26: 0.297 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ryan, Joe · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ryan, Joe · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 43.9%Sweeper: 15.9%Split-Finger: 12.0%Knuckle Curve: 11.2%Sinker: 9.9%Slider: 7.1% FF44% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 44%ST 16%FS 12%KC 11%SI 10%SL 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ryan, Joe · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.4 mphFF93 mphSweeper: 16% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 80.3 mphST80 mphSplit-Finger: 12% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 87.8 mphFS88 mphKnuckle Curve: 11% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 79.0 mphKC79 mphSinker: 10% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.0 mphSI93 mphSlider: 7% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.2 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 48.6% 767 107 qualified
SL 25.4% 401 105 qualified
CB 14.2% 225 104 qualified
SI 11.8% 186 107 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 50%, Sweeper 13%, Sinker 12%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.03
K% Δ+0.002
Sample152.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings77.3----
Batters Faced317----
K%25.3%21.9% to 31.6%+/- 4.9%
BB%5.9%3.9% to 8.0%+/- 2.0%
Whiff%23.8%20.5% to 27.5%+/- 3.5%
HR/91.441.03 to 2.23+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.2970.272 to 0.319+/- 0.024
Barrel% Allowed9.2%6.8% to 13.8%+/- 3.5%
ERA3.812.87 to 5.57+/- 1.35
FIP3.763.17 to 4.62+/- 0.73
WHIP1.1120.928 to 1.330+/- 0.201
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1353 career BF

xwOBA0.280
K%23.3%
BB%5.3%
Barrel11.1%
vs RHH

1407 career BF

xwOBA0.272
K%27.9%
BB%4.8%
Barrel10.4%