Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIN · 2026

Ryan, Joe

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
25.3% K%
Range
21.9% to 31.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIN Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
85
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
60
Arsenal5 metrics
88
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.92
ERA current pace2.85
ERA rolling p503.20
Observed weight67%
ERA
2.20 2.67 3.20 3.73 4.21
FIP
2.70 2.95 3.24 3.52 3.78
K%
25.0% 26.1% 27.3% 28.6% 29.7%
BB%
4.3% 4.8% 5.4% 6.0% 6.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.07
85
ERA2.85
79
BB%5.5%
92
K%27.8%
83
xwOBA allowed0.279
84 +18 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.0%
11 -17 vs proj
Fastball velo93.4
31
Hard-hit allowed43.4%
22
Whiff%23.2%
52
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+107
87
Mithrandir Stuff+108
95
Slider Stuff+107
87
Curveball Stuff+105
88
Sinker Stuff+106
85
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 45%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ryan, Joe · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.279 2026-07-05: 0.2802026-07-06: 0.2802026-07-07: 0.2742026-07-08: 0.2742026-07-09: 0.2742026-07-10: 0.2742026-07-11: 0.2742026-07-12: 0.2742026-07-13: 0.2792026-07-14: 0.2792026-07-15: 0.2792026-07-16: 0.279 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ryan, Joe · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 57%57%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ryan, Joe · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 44.9%Sweeper: 14.3%Split-Finger: 11.4%Knuckle Curve: 11.2%Sinker: 11.0%Slider: 7.3% FF45% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 45%ST 14%FS 11%KC 11%SI 11%SL 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ryan, Joe · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 45% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.5 mphFF93 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 80.3 mphST80 mphSplit-Finger: 11% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.8 mphFS88 mphKnuckle Curve: 11% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 54″ drop, 78.8 mphKC79 mphSinker: 11% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.0 mphSI93 mphSlider: 7% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.6 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 49.8% 630 107 qualified
SL 23.3% 294 107 qualified
CB 14.3% 181 105 limited sample
SI 12.6% 159 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 50%, Sweeper 13%, Sinker 12%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.96
K% Δ+0.025
Sample117.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings76.3----
Batters Faced313----
K%25.3%21.9% to 31.6%+/- 4.9%
BB%5.9%3.9% to 8.0%+/- 2.0%
Whiff%23.8%20.5% to 27.5%+/- 3.5%
HR/91.441.03 to 2.23+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.2970.272 to 0.319+/- 0.024
Barrel% Allowed9.2%6.8% to 13.8%+/- 3.5%
ERA3.812.87 to 5.56+/- 1.35
FIP3.763.17 to 4.62+/- 0.73
WHIP1.1120.928 to 1.330+/- 0.201
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1353 career BF

xwOBA0.280
K%23.3%
BB%5.3%
Barrel11.1%
vs RHH

1407 career BF

xwOBA0.272
K%27.9%
BB%4.8%
Barrel10.4%