Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 50%, Sweeper 13%, Sinker 12%.
Pitcher projection / MIN · 2026
Ryan, Joe
Breaking-ball driven starter profile
Team MIN
Archetype Breaking-ball attack
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.92 |
| ERA current pace | 2.94 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.38 |
| Observed weight | 55% |
ERA
2.42
2.88
3.38
3.89
4.34
FIP
2.78
3.03
3.30
3.57
3.81
K%
23.7%
25.0%
26.5%
28.0%
29.4%
BB%
4.0%
4.7%
5.3%
6.0%
6.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%5.5%
92
Barrel allowed10.4%
21
Fastball velo92.9
26
Hard-hit allowed43.8%
24
K%26.6%
78
Whiff%23.2%
50
xwOBA allowed0.269
85
+20 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+108
92
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
6Pitches
2026Season
42%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 48.0% | 437 | 107 | qualified |
| SL | 23.2% | 211 | 106 | qualified |
| CB | 15.3% | 139 | 105 | limited sample |
| SI | 13.5% | 123 | 108 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.87 |
| K% Δ | +0.013 |
| Sample | 72.0 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 76.6 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 314 | -- | -- |
| K% | 25.3% | 21.9% to 31.6% | +/- 4.9% |
| BB% | 5.9% | 3.9% to 8.0% | +/- 2.0% |
| Whiff% | 23.8% | 20.5% to 27.5% | +/- 3.5% |
| HR/9 | 1.44 | 1.03 to 2.23 | +/- 0.60 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.297 | 0.272 to 0.319 | +/- 0.024 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 9.2% | 6.8% to 13.8% | +/- 3.5% |
| ERA | 3.81 | 2.87 to 5.56 | +/- 1.35 |
| FIP | 3.76 | 3.17 to 4.62 | +/- 0.73 |
| WHIP | 1.112 | 0.928 to 1.330 | +/- 0.201 |
vs LHH
1353 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.280 |
| K% | 23.3% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 11.1% |
vs RHH
1407 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.272 |
| K% | 27.9% |
| BB% | 4.8% |
| Barrel | 10.4% |