Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Koenig, Jared

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.5% K%
Range
17.7% to 30.9%
Live Δ
--
Team MIL Archetype Balanced reliever Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
78
Pitching
percentile
Arsenal4 metrics
78
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.24
ERA current pace9.00
ERA rolling p504.28
Observed weight18%
ERA
2.68 3.44 4.28 5.12 5.88
FIP
2.78 3.30 3.89 4.48 5.01
K%
16.8% 19.4% 22.4% 25.3% 28.0%
BB%
6.3% 7.8% 9.5% 11.2% 12.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Changeup Stuff+116
100
Cutter Stuff+106
86
Mithrandir Stuff+106
82
Sinker Stuff+102
46
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Koenig, Jared · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 20%20%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Koenig, Jared · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 49.1%Cutter: 26.6%Changeup: 15.3%Curveball: 8.1%4-Seam Fastball: 0.9% SI49% · 94 mphprimary pitch SI 49%FC 27%CH 15%CU 8%FF 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Koenig, Jared · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 49% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 94.1 mphSI94 mphCutter: 27% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 90.5 mphFC91 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 83.6 mphCH84 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 80.0 mphCU80 mph4-Seam Fastball: 1% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 96.0 mphFF96 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 56.5% 35 102 limited sample
FC 21.0% 13 106 limited sample
CH 16.1% 10 116 limited sample
CB 3.2% 2 94 limited sample
FB 3.2% 2 90 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.237 vs 0.284 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 55%, Cutter 18%, Curveball 16%.
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings38.8----
Batters Faced163----
K%23.5%17.7% to 30.9%+/- 6.6%
BB%8.3%4.8% to 12.3%+/- 3.7%
Whiff%20.7%17.2% to 27.0%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.200.33 to 1.86+/- 0.77
xwOBA Against0.2910.239 to 0.343+/- 0.052
Barrel% Allowed7.8%3.8% to 11.6%+/- 3.9%
ERA3.651.77 to 5.59+/- 1.91
FIP3.562.57 to 5.23+/- 1.33
WHIP1.2421.027 to 1.599+/- 0.286
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

267 career BF

xwOBA0.237
K%22.1%
BB%6.4%
Barrel5.1%
vs RHH

507 career BF

xwOBA0.284
K%21.3%
BB%8.1%
Barrel8.1%