Hill, Tim
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.29 |
| ERA current pace | 2.53 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.76 |
| Observed weight | 30% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | 80.1% | 238 | 104 | qualified |
| SL | 10.4% | 31 | 99 | limited sample |
| FB | 9.4% | 28 | 95 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.62 |
| K% Δ | -0.030 |
| Sample | 24.3 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 41.1 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 172 | -- | -- |
| K% | 14.7% | 7.4% to 21.0% | +/- 6.8% |
| BB% | 7.4% | 4.2% to 11.3% | +/- 3.6% |
| Whiff% | 14.0% | 10.6% to 21.9% | +/- 5.6% |
| HR/9 | 1.27 | 0.32 to 1.99 | +/- 0.84 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.326 | 0.256 to 0.379 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.1% | 2.6% to 10.5% | +/- 4.0% |
| ERA | 4.16 | 2.01 to 6.68 | +/- 2.34 |
| FIP | 4.55 | 2.84 to 6.37 | +/- 1.77 |
| WHIP | 1.363 | 0.999 to 1.677 | +/- 0.339 |
829 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.263 |
| K% | 12.4% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 3.9% |
952 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.303 |
| K% | 11.1% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 6.6% |