Ferguson, Caleb
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.00 |
| ERA current pace | 0.00 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.82 |
| Observed weight | 4% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2025 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC | 37.5% | 6 | 103 | limited sample |
| SI | 25.0% | 4 | 101 | limited sample |
| SL | 18.8% | 3 | 118 | limited sample |
| FB | 18.8% | 3 | 115 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 40.5 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 177 | -- | -- |
| K% | 21.8% | 17.5% to 28.8% | +/- 5.6% |
| BB% | 9.0% | 6.0% to 13.7% | +/- 3.9% |
| Whiff% | 20.4% | 17.9% to 27.5% | +/- 4.8% |
| HR/9 | 1.08 | 0.44 to 1.91 | +/- 0.74 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.311 | 0.264 to 0.367 | +/- 0.052 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 5.8% | 2.4% to 8.6% | +/- 3.1% |
| ERA | 3.80 | 2.08 to 6.60 | +/- 2.26 |
| FIP | 3.51 | 2.62 to 5.10 | +/- 1.24 |
| WHIP | 1.303 | 1.017 to 1.772 | +/- 0.377 |
574 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.282 |
| K% | 20.9% |
| BB% | 8.6% |
| Barrel | 3.1% |
934 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.307 |
| K% | 20.3% |
| BB% | 8.8% |
| Barrel | 4.7% |