Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Bernardino, Brennan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.4% K%
Range
19.5% to 29.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Volatile contact Age 34 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
67
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
62
Arsenal6 metrics
32
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.16
ERA current pace2.94
ERA rolling p503.50
Observed weight54%
ERA
2.54 2.99 3.50 4.01 4.46
FIP
2.87 3.21 3.59 3.98 4.32
K%
17.7% 19.1% 20.5% 22.0% 23.3%
BB%
6.1% 6.9% 7.8% 8.6% 9.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.22
70
ERA2.94
84
BB%6.0%
89 +50 vs proj
K%18.1%
21 -30 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.294
73 +27 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.9%
75 +23 vs proj
Fastball velo90.3
4
Hard-hit allowed30.0%
95
Whiff%22.0%
46 +19 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Curveball Stuff+101
37
Mithrandir Stuff+102
46
Sinker Stuff+105
71
Changeup Stuff+96
15
Cutter Stuff+97
15
Fastball Stuff+95
11
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bernardino, Brennan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.294 2026-09-12: 0.3052026-09-13: 0.2982026-09-14: 0.2982026-09-18: 0.2982026-09-19: 0.2982026-09-20: 0.2982026-09-21: 0.2952026-09-22: 0.2952026-09-23: 0.2952026-09-24: 0.2952026-09-25: 0.2952026-09-26: 0.294 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bernardino, Brennan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 30%30% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bernardino, Brennan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 40.9%Curveball: 33.3%Cutter: 11.7%Changeup: 7.9%4-Seam Fastball: 5.4%Sweeper: 0.8% SI41% · 90 mphprimary pitch SI 41%CU 33%FC 12%CH 8%FF 5%ST 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bernardino, Brennan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 41% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 90.3 mphSI90 mphCurveball: 33% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 77.8 mphCU78 mphCutter: 12% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 85.8 mphFC86 mphChangeup: 8% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 80.2 mphCH80 mph4-Seam Fastball: 5% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 90.6 mphFF91 mphSweeper: 1% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 79.2 mphST79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 42.5% 278 105 qualified
CB 33.5% 219 101 qualified
FC 10.9% 71 97 limited sample
CH 7.2% 47 96 limited sample
FB 6.0% 39 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.252 vs 0.275 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 45%, Curveball 25%, Cutter 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.08
K% Δ-0.043
Sample65.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.5----
Batters Faced290----
K%22.4%19.5% to 29.5%+/- 5.0%
BB%9.8%7.5% to 13.2%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%20.1%16.9% to 24.2%+/- 3.7%
HR/91.120.29 to 1.63+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.3160.275 to 0.354+/- 0.039
Barrel% Allowed7.3%4.8% to 9.9%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.022.78 to 5.49+/- 1.36
FIP3.662.43 to 4.48+/- 1.02
WHIP1.4011.074 to 1.626+/- 0.276
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

311 career BF

xwOBA0.252
K%24.1%
BB%8.6%
Barrel5.9%
vs RHH

403 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%21.1%
BB%10.5%
Barrel6.7%