Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Bernardino, Brennan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.4% K%
Range
19.5% to 29.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Volatile contact Age 34 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.16
ERA current pace4.03
ERA rolling p504.11
Observed weight34%
ERA
3.10 3.58 4.11 4.64 5.12
FIP
2.78 3.14 3.54 3.94 4.30
K%
17.6% 19.3% 21.2% 23.2% 24.9%
BB%
6.5% 7.6% 8.7% 9.8% 10.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%6.5%
80 +46 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.8%
64
Fastball velo90.0
5
Hard-hit allowed23.9%
99
K%17.1%
15 -36 vs proj
Whiff%24.2%
61 +37 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.282
78 +32 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+101
44
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bernardino, Brennan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2882026-05-19: 0.2882026-05-21: 0.2932026-05-23: 0.2902026-05-24: 0.2902026-05-25: 0.2812026-05-26: 0.2972026-05-28: 0.2872026-05-29: 0.2822026-05-30: 0.2822026-05-31: 0.2822026-06-01: 0.282 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bernardino, Brennan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 24%24% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bernardino, Brennan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 40.1%Curveball: 28.6%Cutter: 14.1%4-Seam Fastball: 9.7%Changeup: 7.5% MIX SI 40%CU 29%FC 14%FF 10%CH 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bernardino, Brennan · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB 0.3, IVB 2.5SICU: HB -0.4, IVB 3.8CUFC: HB -0.0, IVB 2.5FCFF: HB -0.2, IVB 2.0FFCH: HB -0.9, IVB 3.5CH horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 42.9% 156 103 limited sample
CB 29.9% 109 103 limited sample
FC 11.5% 42 98 limited sample
FB 9.3% 34 95 limited sample
CH 6.3% 23 87 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.252 vs 0.275 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 45%, Curveball 25%, Cutter 14%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.01
K% Δ-0.053
Sample27.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings64.9----
Batters Faced287----
K%22.4%19.5% to 29.5%+/- 5.0%
BB%9.8%7.5% to 13.2%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%20.1%16.9% to 24.2%+/- 3.7%
HR/91.120.29 to 1.63+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.3160.275 to 0.354+/- 0.039
Barrel% Allowed7.3%4.8% to 9.9%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.022.78 to 5.49+/- 1.36
FIP3.662.43 to 4.48+/- 1.02
WHIP1.4011.074 to 1.626+/- 0.276
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

311 career BF

xwOBA0.252
K%24.1%
BB%8.6%
Barrel5.9%
vs RHH

403 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%21.1%
BB%10.5%
Barrel6.7%