Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Bernardino, Brennan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.4% K%
Range
19.5% to 29.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Volatile contact Age 34 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
49
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
51
Arsenal6 metrics
34
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.16
ERA current pace2.98
ERA rolling p503.64
Observed weight44%
ERA
2.67 3.13 3.64 4.15 4.61
FIP
2.90 3.24 3.63 4.01 4.36
K%
16.9% 18.4% 20.1% 21.8% 23.3%
BB%
6.8% 7.7% 8.8% 9.8% 10.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.36
44
ERA2.98
77
BB%7.4%
69 +35 vs proj
K%16.0%
11 -39 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.318
45
Barrel allowed5.8%
78 +20 vs proj
Fastball velo90.2
4
Hard-hit allowed29.7%
95
Whiff%21.6%
39
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+91
5
Curveball Stuff+102
42
Cutter Stuff+100
33
Fastball Stuff+96
16
Mithrandir Stuff+101
44
Sinker Stuff+103
62
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bernardino, Brennan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.318 2026-07-06: 0.3072026-07-07: 0.3112026-07-08: 0.3132026-07-09: 0.3132026-07-10: 0.3112026-07-11: 0.3112026-07-12: 0.3142026-07-13: 0.3142026-07-14: 0.3182026-07-15: 0.3182026-07-16: 0.3182026-07-17: 0.318 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bernardino, Brennan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 30%30% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bernardino, Brennan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 40.6%Curveball: 29.6%Cutter: 12.9%Changeup: 8.4%4-Seam Fastball: 7.2%Sweeper: 1.3% SI41% · 90 mphprimary pitch SI 41%CU 30%FC 13%CH 8%FF 7%ST 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bernardino, Brennan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 41% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 90.1 mphSI90 mphCurveball: 30% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 77.8 mphCU78 mphCutter: 13% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 86.2 mphFC86 mphChangeup: 8% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 80.2 mphCH80 mph4-Seam Fastball: 7% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 90.5 mphFF91 mphSweeper: 1% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 79.2 mphST79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 41.4% 177 103 limited sample
CB 31.3% 134 102 limited sample
FC 11.7% 50 100 limited sample
FB 8.2% 35 96 limited sample
CH 7.5% 32 91 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.252 vs 0.275 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 45%, Curveball 25%, Cutter 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.04
K% Δ-0.064
Sample42.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings64.5----
Batters Faced286----
K%22.4%19.5% to 29.5%+/- 5.0%
BB%9.8%7.5% to 13.2%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%20.1%16.9% to 24.2%+/- 3.7%
HR/91.120.29 to 1.63+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.3160.275 to 0.354+/- 0.039
Barrel% Allowed7.3%4.8% to 9.9%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.022.78 to 5.49+/- 1.36
FIP3.662.43 to 4.48+/- 1.02
WHIP1.4011.074 to 1.626+/- 0.276
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

311 career BF

xwOBA0.252
K%24.1%
BB%8.6%
Barrel5.9%
vs RHH

403 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%21.1%
BB%10.5%
Barrel6.7%