Bernardino, Brennan
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.16 |
| ERA current pace | 4.03 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.11 |
| Observed weight | 34% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | 42.9% | 156 | 103 | limited sample |
| CB | 29.9% | 109 | 103 | limited sample |
| FC | 11.5% | 42 | 98 | limited sample |
| FB | 9.3% | 34 | 95 | limited sample |
| CH | 6.3% | 23 | 87 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +0.01 |
| K% Δ | -0.053 |
| Sample | 27.3 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 64.9 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 287 | -- | -- |
| K% | 22.4% | 19.5% to 29.5% | +/- 5.0% |
| BB% | 9.8% | 7.5% to 13.2% | +/- 2.9% |
| Whiff% | 20.1% | 16.9% to 24.2% | +/- 3.7% |
| HR/9 | 1.12 | 0.29 to 1.63 | +/- 0.67 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.316 | 0.275 to 0.354 | +/- 0.039 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.3% | 4.8% to 9.9% | +/- 2.5% |
| ERA | 4.02 | 2.78 to 5.49 | +/- 1.36 |
| FIP | 3.66 | 2.43 to 4.48 | +/- 1.02 |
| WHIP | 1.401 | 1.074 to 1.626 | +/- 0.276 |
311 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.252 |
| K% | 24.1% |
| BB% | 8.6% |
| Barrel | 5.9% |
403 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.275 |
| K% | 21.1% |
| BB% | 10.5% |
| Barrel | 6.7% |