Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SF · 2026

Gage, Matt

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.4% K%
Range
12.8% to 24.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team SF Archetype Balanced reliever Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-02
ERA preseason3.75
ERA current pace2.02
ERA rolling p503.22
Observed weight31%
ERA
1.85 2.50 3.22 3.94 4.58
FIP
3.03 3.60 4.24 4.88 5.46
K%
14.5% 16.5% 18.9% 21.2% 23.3%
BB%
6.7% 7.9% 9.3% 10.6% 11.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-02
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%12.1%
15 -31 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.6%
77
Fastball velo92.5
22
Hard-hit allowed26.4%
98
K%19.6%
29
Whiff%21.2%
34
xwOBA allowed0.316
47
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-02
Mithrandir Stuff+95
13
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 46%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gage, Matt · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-19: 0.3012026-05-21: 0.3122026-05-23: 0.3122026-05-24: 0.2972026-05-25: 0.2982026-05-26: 0.2982026-05-28: 0.2922026-05-29: 0.2922026-05-30: 0.2922026-05-31: 0.2952026-06-01: 0.2952026-06-02: 0.316 2026-05-19 2026-06-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gage, Matt · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 39%39%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 26%26% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gage, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 46.3%4-Seam Fastball: 31.2%Changeup: 16.5%Sinker: 6.0% MIX SL 46%FF 31%CH 17%SI 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gage, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot SL: HB -0.0, IVB 3.1SLFF: HB -0.1, IVB 1.3FFCH: HB -0.5, IVB 2.7CHSI: HB -0.5, IVB 1.5SI horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 47.2% 187 98 limited sample
FB 30.8% 122 93 limited sample
CH 15.9% 63 100 limited sample
SI 6.1% 24 90 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.215 vs 0.236 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 50%, 4-Seam Fastball 28%, Sinker 9%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.87
K% Δ-0.008
Sample25.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings61.8----
Batters Faced276----
K%20.4%12.8% to 24.7%+/- 6.0%
BB%8.9%5.3% to 11.6%+/- 3.2%
Whiff%21.5%13.9% to 24.4%+/- 5.2%
HR/91.110.05 to 1.82+/- 0.88
xwOBA Against0.3060.229 to 0.349+/- 0.060
Barrel% Allowed6.7%2.5% to 8.8%+/- 3.2%
ERA3.892.12 to 5.73+/- 1.80
FIP4.092.34 to 5.55+/- 1.61
WHIP1.3441.131 to 1.677+/- 0.273
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

107 career BF

xwOBA0.215
K%15.7%
BB%6.5%
Barrel3.0%
vs RHH

130 career BF

xwOBA0.236
K%15.0%
BB%7.2%
Barrel3.9%