Gage, Matt
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.75 |
| ERA current pace | 2.02 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.22 |
| Observed weight | 31% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 47.2% | 187 | 98 | limited sample |
| FB | 30.8% | 122 | 93 | limited sample |
| CH | 15.9% | 63 | 100 | limited sample |
| SI | 6.1% | 24 | 90 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.87 |
| K% Δ | -0.008 |
| Sample | 25.0 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 61.8 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 276 | -- | -- |
| K% | 20.4% | 12.8% to 24.7% | +/- 6.0% |
| BB% | 8.9% | 5.3% to 11.6% | +/- 3.2% |
| Whiff% | 21.5% | 13.9% to 24.4% | +/- 5.2% |
| HR/9 | 1.11 | 0.05 to 1.82 | +/- 0.88 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.306 | 0.229 to 0.349 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 6.7% | 2.5% to 8.8% | +/- 3.2% |
| ERA | 3.89 | 2.12 to 5.73 | +/- 1.80 |
| FIP | 4.09 | 2.34 to 5.55 | +/- 1.61 |
| WHIP | 1.344 | 1.131 to 1.677 | +/- 0.273 |
107 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.215 |
| K% | 15.7% |
| BB% | 6.5% |
| Barrel | 3.0% |
130 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.236 |
| K% | 15.0% |
| BB% | 7.2% |
| Barrel | 3.9% |