Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026

Sousa, Bennett

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
26.4% K%
Range
17.4% to 32.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
27
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
39
Arsenal4 metrics
26
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.28
ERA current pace5.40
ERA rolling p504.07
Observed weight37%
ERA
2.49 3.24 4.07 4.89 5.64
FIP
3.13 3.56 4.02 4.49 4.91
K%
19.6% 22.0% 24.6% 27.3% 29.7%
BB%
7.0% 8.4% 9.9% 11.5% 12.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.84
2
ERA5.40
18
BB%12.8%
13 -46 vs proj
K%22.7%
55 -24 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.313
49
Barrel allowed9.9%
15 -21 vs proj
Fastball velo93.8
39
Hard-hit allowed36.3%
67
Whiff%30.3%
93
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Slider Stuff+102
48
Fastball Stuff+98
21
Mithrandir Stuff+100
29
Sinker Stuff+92
6
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 68%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sousa, Bennett · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.313 2026-09-12: 0.3032026-09-13: 0.3062026-09-14: 0.3062026-09-18: 0.3152026-09-19: 0.3162026-09-20: 0.3162026-09-21: 0.3122026-09-22: 0.3122026-09-23: 0.3082026-09-24: 0.3082026-09-25: 0.3082026-09-26: 0.313 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sousa, Bennett · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sousa, Bennett · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 67.5%4-Seam Fastball: 24.4%Sinker: 8.1% SL68% · 85 mphprimary pitch SL 68%FF 24%SI 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sousa, Bennett · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 68% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 85.5 mphSL85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 24% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 94.0 mphFF94 mphSinker: 8% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.0 mphSI93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 67.6% 282 102 qualified
FB 23.0% 96 98 limited sample
SI 8.4% 35 92 limited sample
FC 1.0% 4 52 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.222 vs 0.243 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 58%, 4-Seam Fastball 41%, Sinker 1%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.93
K% Δ-0.037
Sample29.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings32.7----
Batters Faced131----
K%26.4%17.4% to 32.6%+/- 7.6%
BB%8.2%4.6% to 12.8%+/- 4.1%
Whiff%30.1%24.9% to 37.0%+/- 6.1%
HR/91.110.26 to 1.78+/- 0.76
xwOBA Against0.3110.206 to 0.324+/- 0.059
Barrel% Allowed8.3%3.9% to 12.2%+/- 4.2%
ERA3.471.45 to 5.75+/- 2.15
FIP3.462.23 to 4.66+/- 1.21
WHIP1.1850.795 to 1.588+/- 0.397
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

142 career BF

xwOBA0.222
K%25.9%
BB%6.2%
Barrel7.2%
vs RHH

251 career BF

xwOBA0.243
K%22.2%
BB%6.9%
Barrel8.1%