Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Peterson, David

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
20.7% K%
Range
17.0% to 26.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
17
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
25
Arsenal6 metrics
41
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.97
ERA current pace6.45
ERA rolling p505.55
Observed weight64%
ERA
4.39 4.94 5.55 6.16 6.71
FIP
3.48 3.80 4.15 4.50 4.82
K%
17.0% 18.1% 19.3% 20.4% 21.5%
BB%
7.8% 8.5% 9.2% 10.0% 10.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.65
8
ERA6.45
7
BB%9.5%
39
K%18.0%
18 -19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.352
14
Barrel allowed6.0%
75 +20 vs proj
Fastball velo92.0
16
Hard-hit allowed44.0%
18
Whiff%20.6%
30 -24 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+95
14
Mithrandir Stuff+100
36
Sinker Stuff+98
21
Slider Stuff+108
90
Changeup Stuff+104
67
Curveball Stuff+100
19
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Peterson, David · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.352 2026-07-05: 0.3472026-07-06: 0.3472026-07-07: 0.3472026-07-08: 0.3472026-07-09: 0.3472026-07-10: 0.3472026-07-11: 0.3522026-07-12: 0.3522026-07-13: 0.3522026-07-14: 0.3522026-07-15: 0.3522026-07-16: 0.352 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Peterson, David · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Peterson, David · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 29.7%Slider: 23.8%4-Seam Fastball: 22.6%Changeup: 12.2%Curveball: 11.7% SI30% · 92 mphprimary pitch SI 30%SL 24%FF 23%CH 12%CU 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Peterson, David · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 30% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 91.9 mphSI92 mphSlider: 24% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 86.1 mphSL86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 23% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.1 mphFF92 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.6 mphCH86 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 80.6 mphCU81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 28.7% 286 98 qualified
SL 23.9% 238 108 qualified
FB 22.3% 222 95 qualified
CB 13.4% 133 100 limited sample
CH 11.7% 116 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.275 vs 0.331 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 30%, 4-Seam Fastball 22%, Slider 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.47
K% Δ-0.027
Sample89.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings143.7----
Batters Faced626----
K%20.7%17.0% to 26.1%+/- 4.5%
BB%8.9%7.1% to 11.4%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%23.4%19.5% to 27.7%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.070.41 to 1.65+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3400.295 to 0.358+/- 0.031
Barrel% Allowed7.5%5.1% to 10.6%+/- 2.7%
ERA3.982.46 to 5.62+/- 1.58
FIP4.123.01 to 4.83+/- 0.91
WHIP1.4881.142 to 1.710+/- 0.284
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

660 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%23.8%
BB%6.4%
Barrel5.0%
vs RHH

2176 career BF

xwOBA0.331
K%17.8%
BB%9.7%
Barrel7.3%