Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Peterson, David

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
20.7% K%
Range
17.0% to 26.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
31
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
35
Arsenal6 metrics
42
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.97
ERA current pace5.11
ERA rolling p504.82
Observed weight75%
ERA
3.58 4.17 4.82 5.48 6.07
FIP
3.26 3.60 3.98 4.36 4.70
K%
18.8% 19.6% 20.6% 21.6% 22.5%
BB%
8.3% 8.8% 9.5% 10.1% 10.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.51
22
ERA5.11
25
BB%9.7%
42
K%20.3%
36
xwOBA allowed0.333
29
Barrel allowed6.0%
74 +25 vs proj
Fastball velo92.3
18
Hard-hit allowed40.4%
35
Whiff%21.2%
38 -19 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+98
20
Mithrandir Stuff+101
36
Sinker Stuff+98
21
Slider Stuff+105
80
Changeup Stuff+105
72
Curveball Stuff+100
23
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Peterson, David · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.333 2026-09-12: 0.3412026-09-13: 0.3412026-09-14: 0.3412026-09-18: 0.3372026-09-19: 0.3372026-09-20: 0.3372026-09-21: 0.3342026-09-22: 0.3342026-09-23: 0.3342026-09-24: 0.3342026-09-25: 0.3342026-09-26: 0.333 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Peterson, David · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Peterson, David · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 29.8%4-Seam Fastball: 24.8%Slider: 21.9%Changeup: 13.1%Curveball: 10.4% SI30% · 92 mphprimary pitch SI 30%FF 25%SL 22%CH 13%CU 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Peterson, David · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 30% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 92.1 mphSI92 mph4-Seam Fastball: 25% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.5 mphFF92 mphSlider: 22% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 86.3 mphSL86 mphChangeup: 13% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.6 mphCH86 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 80.4 mphCU80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 29.6% 460 98 qualified
FB 24.5% 380 98 qualified
SL 23.0% 358 105 qualified
CH 11.5% 178 105 limited sample
CB 11.5% 178 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.275 vs 0.331 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 30%, 4-Seam Fastball 22%, Slider 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.13
K% Δ-0.004
Sample156.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings141.9----
Batters Faced618----
K%20.7%17.0% to 26.1%+/- 4.5%
BB%8.9%7.1% to 11.4%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%23.4%19.5% to 27.7%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.070.41 to 1.65+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3400.295 to 0.358+/- 0.031
Barrel% Allowed7.5%5.1% to 10.6%+/- 2.7%
ERA3.982.46 to 5.62+/- 1.58
FIP4.123.00 to 4.83+/- 0.91
WHIP1.4881.142 to 1.710+/- 0.284
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

660 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%23.8%
BB%6.4%
Barrel5.0%
vs RHH

2176 career BF

xwOBA0.331
K%17.8%
BB%9.7%
Barrel7.3%