Breaking-ball driven starter profile
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.02 |
| ERA current pace | 5.57 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.89 |
| Observed weight | 56% |
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | 30.0% | 282 | 99 | qualified |
| SL | 23.9% | 225 | 108 | qualified |
| FB | 22.3% | 210 | 95 | qualified |
| CB | 13.0% | 122 | 99 | limited sample |
| CH | 10.8% | 102 | 105 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
| ERA Δ | +1.53 |
| K% Δ | -0.005 |
| Sample | 64.7 IP |
positive regression
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 142.5 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 621 | -- | -- |
| K% | 20.7% | 17.0% to 26.1% | +/- 4.5% |
| BB% | 8.9% | 7.1% to 11.4% | +/- 2.2% |
| Whiff% | 23.4% | 19.5% to 27.7% | +/- 4.1% |
| HR/9 | 1.07 | 0.41 to 1.65 | +/- 0.62 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.344 | 0.299 to 0.363 | +/- 0.032 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.5% | 5.1% to 10.6% | +/- 2.7% |
| ERA | 4.04 | 2.49 to 5.69 | +/- 1.60 |
| FIP | 4.12 | 3.01 to 4.83 | +/- 0.91 |
| WHIP | 1.446 | 1.110 to 1.662 | +/- 0.276 |
| xwOBA | 0.275 |
| K% | 23.8% |
| BB% | 6.4% |
| Barrel | 5.0% |
| xwOBA | 0.331 |
| K% | 17.8% |
| BB% | 9.7% |
| Barrel | 7.3% |
