Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CWS · 2026

Newcomb, Sean

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.4% K%
Range
17.6% to 27.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team CWS Archetype Balanced reliever Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
55
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
50
Arsenal7 metrics
53
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.11
ERA current pace3.24
ERA rolling p503.58
Observed weight61%
ERA
2.36 2.94 3.58 4.22 4.79
FIP
2.82 3.18 3.59 3.99 4.36
K%
19.3% 20.5% 21.8% 23.1% 24.3%
BB%
7.0% 7.8% 8.7% 9.6% 10.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.25
63
ERA3.24
78
BB%9.2%
47
K%21.6%
45
xwOBA allowed0.320
41
Barrel allowed7.1%
56
Fastball velo94.4
50
Hard-hit allowed39.4%
43
Whiff%20.4%
30
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+108
89
Mithrandir Stuff+107
88
Sinker Stuff+106
80
Slider Stuff+104
73
Changeup Stuff+98
25
Curveball Stuff+99
14
Cutter Stuff+93
3
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Newcomb, Sean · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.320 2026-09-12: 0.3052026-09-13: 0.3042026-09-14: 0.3042026-09-18: 0.3122026-09-19: 0.3172026-09-20: 0.3172026-09-21: 0.3172026-09-22: 0.3172026-09-23: 0.3172026-09-24: 0.3202026-09-25: 0.3202026-09-26: 0.320 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Newcomb, Sean · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Newcomb, Sean · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 38.7%Slurve: 31.1%Sinker: 21.3%Curveball: 4.2%Changeup: 2.8%Cutter: 1.9% FF39% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 39%SV 31%SI 21%CU 4%CH 3%FC 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Newcomb, Sean · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 39% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 94.8 mphFF95 mphSlurve: 31% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 82.8 mphSV83 mphSinker: 21% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 93.5 mphSI93 mphCurveball: 4% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 80.8 mphCU81 mphChangeup: 3% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 86.8 mphCH87 mphCutter: 2% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 91.3 mphFC91 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 35.8% 349 108 qualified
SL 30.7% 299 104 qualified
SI 23.0% 224 106 qualified
CB 4.8% 47 99 limited sample
CH 3.8% 37 98 limited sample
FC 1.9% 19 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.283 vs 0.305 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 29%, Sinker 22%, Slurve 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.75
K% Δ-0.008
Sample89.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.6----
Batters Faced283----
K%22.4%17.6% to 27.1%+/- 4.7%
BB%8.1%5.1% to 11.6%+/- 3.3%
Whiff%18.7%15.0% to 24.1%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.320.39 to 2.18+/- 0.90
xwOBA Against0.3220.276 to 0.347+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed7.2%4.2% to 10.1%+/- 2.9%
ERA3.992.24 to 5.60+/- 1.68
FIP3.892.72 to 4.84+/- 1.06
WHIP1.2781.072 to 1.645+/- 0.286
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

687 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%21.1%
BB%7.9%
Barrel5.9%
vs RHH

1754 career BF

xwOBA0.305
K%19.8%
BB%8.1%
Barrel6.2%