Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Montgomery, Jordan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.4% K%
Range
13.8% to 24.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Volatile contact Age 34 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
62
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
54
Arsenal6 metrics
34
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.23
ERA current pace5.00
ERA rolling p504.45
Observed weight28%
ERA
3.13 3.75 4.45 5.14 5.76
FIP
3.38 3.77 4.21 4.64 5.03
K%
13.8% 15.7% 17.9% 20.1% 22.1%
BB%
4.7% 5.7% 6.7% 7.8% 8.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.03
91
ERA5.00
27
BB%6.4%
87
K%18.1%
21
xwOBA allowed0.281
83 +50 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.1%
56
Fastball velo90.5
5
Hard-hit allowed32.9%
88
Whiff%19.8%
25 -25 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+96
15
Curveball Stuff+104
78
Fastball Stuff+100
32
Mithrandir Stuff+101
34
Sinker Stuff+100
35
Slider Stuff+93
6
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

6 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Montgomery, Jordan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.281 2026-09-21: 0.2922026-09-22: 0.2922026-09-23: 0.2922026-09-24: 0.2892026-09-25: 0.2892026-09-26: 0.281 2026-09-21 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Montgomery, Jordan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Montgomery, Jordan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 38.8%Slider: 17.3%Curveball: 16.0%4-Seam Fastball: 15.7%Changeup: 12.2% SI39% · 90 mphprimary pitch SI 39%SL 17%CU 16%FF 16%CH 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Montgomery, Jordan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 39% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 90.5 mphSI90 mphSlider: 17% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 83.0 mphSL83 mphCurveball: 16% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 57″ drop, 76.8 mphCU77 mph4-Seam Fastball: 16% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 90.3 mphFF90 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 81.6 mphCH82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 40.6% 91 100 limited sample
CB 23.2% 52 104 limited sample
CH 13.4% 30 96 limited sample
FB 12.1% 27 100 limited sample
SL 10.7% 24 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.283 vs 0.315 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 45%, Curveball 32%, Changeup 12%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.34
K% Δ+0.017
Sample23.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings70.2----
Batters Faced308----
K%16.4%13.8% to 24.6%+/- 5.4%
BB%7.4%4.8% to 9.8%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%22.6%19.3% to 30.7%+/- 5.7%
HR/91.520.75 to 1.99+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3260.287 to 0.371+/- 0.042
Barrel% Allowed7.6%4.7% to 10.4%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.662.95 to 6.36+/- 1.71
FIP4.493.04 to 5.18+/- 1.07
WHIP1.3931.148 to 1.759+/- 0.305
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

682 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%19.3%
BB%6.6%
Barrel5.1%
vs RHH

3251 career BF

xwOBA0.315
K%16.4%
BB%6.6%
Barrel6.5%