Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Megill, Trevor

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
26.7% K%
Range
21.0% to 35.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
90
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
84
Arsenal3 metrics
94
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.07
ERA current pace3.00
ERA rolling p503.04
Observed weight39%
ERA
1.86 2.42 3.04 3.66 4.22
FIP
1.47 1.97 2.53 3.09 3.59
K%
24.2% 26.4% 28.9% 31.3% 33.5%
BB%
5.6% 6.5% 7.5% 8.6% 9.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.88
96
ERA3.00
76
BB%6.5%
83 +38 vs proj
K%32.9%
97 +19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.247
97 +21 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.3%
91 +50 vs proj
Fastball velo97.8
93
Hard-hit allowed41.9%
30
Whiff%30.7%
93 +23 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+110
94
Curveball Stuff+105
89
Mithrandir Stuff+110
98
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

2Pitches 2026Season 64%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Megill, Trevor · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.247 2026-07-05: 0.2482026-07-06: 0.2482026-07-07: 0.2502026-07-08: 0.2472026-07-09: 0.2472026-07-10: 0.2472026-07-11: 0.2472026-07-12: 0.2472026-07-13: 0.2472026-07-14: 0.2472026-07-15: 0.2472026-07-16: 0.247 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Megill, Trevor · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 31%31%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Megill, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 63.5%Knuckle Curve: 36.5% FF64% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 64%KC 36% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Megill, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 64% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 10″ drop, 97.8 mphFF98 mphKnuckle Curve: 36% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 87.8 mphKC88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 62.3% 249 110 qualified
CB 37.8% 151 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 61%, Knuckle Curve 39%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.27
K% Δ+0.062
Sample39.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings63.8----
Batters Faced261----
K%26.7%21.0% to 35.0%+/- 7.0%
BB%9.1%5.6% to 11.2%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%25.5%21.4% to 31.6%+/- 5.1%
HR/90.980.47 to 1.70+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.2860.245 to 0.336+/- 0.046
Barrel% Allowed8.2%6.3% to 12.7%+/- 3.2%
ERA3.271.60 to 4.86+/- 1.63
FIP3.152.17 to 5.09+/- 1.46
WHIP1.1910.973 to 1.436+/- 0.232
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

433 career BF

xwOBA0.270
K%26.6%
BB%9.0%
Barrel8.8%
vs RHH

490 career BF

xwOBA0.266
K%26.0%
BB%6.8%
Barrel9.2%