Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Latz, Jacob

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.6% K%
Range
17.4% to 28.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
85
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
68
Arsenal5 metrics
64
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.55
ERA current pace2.11
ERA rolling p502.76
Observed weight55%
ERA
1.60 2.15 2.76 3.38 3.93
FIP
2.67 3.15 3.67 4.20 4.67
K%
23.2% 24.7% 26.3% 27.9% 29.3%
BB%
7.6% 8.5% 9.4% 10.4% 11.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.95
95
ERA2.11
95
BB%9.3%
46
K%29.6%
91 +46 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.256
95 +33 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.6%
18 -37 vs proj
Fastball velo94.7
54
Hard-hit allowed41.8%
27
Whiff%28.5%
89 +15 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+106
80
Mithrandir Stuff+105
77
Changeup Stuff+101
42
Curveball Stuff+100
26
Slider Stuff+109
93
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 55%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Latz, Jacob · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.256 2026-09-12: 0.2472026-09-13: 0.2462026-09-14: 0.2502026-09-18: 0.2522026-09-19: 0.2522026-09-20: 0.2522026-09-21: 0.2532026-09-22: 0.2532026-09-23: 0.2532026-09-24: 0.2562026-09-25: 0.2562026-09-26: 0.256 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Latz, Jacob · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Latz, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 55.3%Changeup: 19.6%Slider: 17.5%Curveball: 7.6% FF55% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 55%CH 20%SL 17%CU 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Latz, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 55% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 94.7 mphFF95 mphChangeup: 20% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 85.9 mphCH86 mphSlider: 17% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.5 mphSL86 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 80.4 mphCU80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 54.4% 444 106 qualified
SL 19.6% 160 109 limited sample
CH 19.2% 157 101 limited sample
CB 6.7% 55 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 49%, Changeup 23%, Slider 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.87
K% Δ+0.080
Sample73.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.5----
Batters Faced279----
K%21.6%17.4% to 28.0%+/- 5.3%
BB%10.4%7.9% to 14.1%+/- 3.1%
Whiff%25.7%22.0% to 31.0%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.080.48 to 1.82+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.3040.261 to 0.346+/- 0.042
Barrel% Allowed7.1%4.4% to 10.6%+/- 3.1%
ERA3.981.75 to 5.04+/- 1.64
FIP4.032.80 to 5.62+/- 1.41
WHIP1.3231.018 to 1.562+/- 0.272
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

215 career BF

xwOBA0.284
K%20.7%
BB%10.5%
Barrel5.4%
vs RHH

389 career BF

xwOBA0.303
K%19.8%
BB%11.4%
Barrel7.0%