Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Latz, Jacob

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.6% K%
Range
17.4% to 28.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
87
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
72
Arsenal5 metrics
57
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.55
ERA current pace1.61
ERA rolling p502.71
Observed weight44%
ERA
1.54 2.09 2.71 3.32 3.88
FIP
2.72 3.20 3.73 4.25 4.73
K%
21.3% 22.9% 24.8% 26.7% 28.3%
BB%
6.9% 7.8% 8.9% 10.0% 11.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.88
97
ERA1.61
98
BB%8.1%
60 +30 vs proj
K%28.0%
84 +40 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.249
96 +36 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.4%
39 -19 vs proj
Fastball velo94.5
50
Hard-hit allowed40.3%
41
Whiff%27.2%
80
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+106
76
Mithrandir Stuff+105
72
Changeup Stuff+100
31
Curveball Stuff+99
13
Slider Stuff+109
91
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 53%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Latz, Jacob · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.249 2026-07-06: 0.2462026-07-07: 0.2462026-07-08: 0.2462026-07-09: 0.2462026-07-10: 0.2462026-07-11: 0.2462026-07-12: 0.2462026-07-13: 0.2462026-07-14: 0.2492026-07-15: 0.2492026-07-16: 0.2492026-07-17: 0.249 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Latz, Jacob · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Latz, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 52.9%Slider: 20.2%Changeup: 18.1%Curveball: 8.8% FF53% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 53%SL 20%CH 18%CU 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Latz, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 53% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 94.5 mphFF95 mphSlider: 20% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 85.3 mphSL85 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 85.5 mphCH85 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 80.2 mphCU80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 52.9% 277 106 qualified
SL 22.7% 119 109 limited sample
CH 16.0% 84 100 limited sample
CB 8.4% 44 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 49%, Changeup 23%, Slider 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.37
K% Δ+0.064
Sample48.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.6----
Batters Faced275----
K%21.6%17.4% to 28.0%+/- 5.3%
BB%10.4%7.9% to 14.1%+/- 3.1%
Whiff%25.7%22.0% to 31.0%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.080.48 to 1.82+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.3040.261 to 0.346+/- 0.042
Barrel% Allowed7.1%4.4% to 10.6%+/- 3.1%
ERA3.981.75 to 5.04+/- 1.64
FIP4.022.80 to 5.62+/- 1.41
WHIP1.3231.018 to 1.562+/- 0.272
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

215 career BF

xwOBA0.284
K%20.7%
BB%10.5%
Barrel5.4%
vs RHH

389 career BF

xwOBA0.303
K%19.8%
BB%11.4%
Barrel7.0%