Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Lange, Alex

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
26.2% K%
Range
18.2% to 32.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Volatile contact Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
20
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
30
Arsenal6 metrics
31
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.96
ERA current pace6.09
ERA rolling p505.12
Observed weight54%
ERA
3.37 4.20 5.12 6.04 6.87
FIP
3.49 3.98 4.51 5.05 5.54
K%
20.1% 21.8% 23.7% 25.6% 27.3%
BB%
9.1% 10.4% 11.9% 13.4% 14.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.64
10
ERA6.09
10
BB%11.9%
19
K%21.7%
46 -33 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.349
15 -44 vs proj
Barrel allowed13.1%
2 -69 vs proj
Fastball velo95.8
73
Hard-hit allowed44.3%
13
Whiff%26.5%
79 -16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Mithrandir Stuff+99
26
Slider Stuff+97
19
Changeup Stuff+104
64
Cutter Stuff+100
33
Fastball Stuff+94
10
Sinker Stuff+100
33
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lange, Alex · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.349 2026-09-12: 0.3422026-09-13: 0.3432026-09-14: 0.3432026-09-18: 0.3452026-09-19: 0.3452026-09-20: 0.3462026-09-21: 0.3462026-09-22: 0.3462026-09-23: 0.3422026-09-24: 0.3422026-09-25: 0.3422026-09-26: 0.349 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lange, Alex · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lange, Alex · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 32.0%Sinker: 23.1%Changeup: 21.5%Cutter: 12.5%4-Seam Fastball: 10.8%Knuckle Curve: 0.1% SL32% · 88 mphprimary pitch SL 32%SI 23%CH 22%FC 12%FF 11%KC 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lange, Alex · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 32% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 87.9 mphSL88 mphSinker: 23% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 95.7 mphSI96 mphChangeup: 22% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 90.7 mphCH91 mphCutter: 12% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 92.1 mphFC92 mph4-Seam Fastball: 11% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 95.9 mphFF96 mphKnuckle Curve: 0% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 84.5 mphKC84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 32.8% 225 97 qualified
SI 22.4% 154 100 limited sample
CH 20.7% 142 104 limited sample
FC 12.4% 85 100 limited sample
FB 11.8% 81 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 60%, Changeup 15%, Sinker 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.26
K% Δ-0.045
Sample61.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings30.6----
Batters Faced138----
K%26.2%18.2% to 32.2%+/- 7.0%
BB%12.0%6.9% to 17.7%+/- 5.4%
Whiff%31.2%25.1% to 39.5%+/- 7.2%
HR/90.840.00 to 1.56+/- 0.78
xwOBA Against0.3060.212 to 0.356+/- 0.072
Barrel% Allowed6.1%1.7% to 10.0%+/- 4.1%
ERA3.830.82 to 5.75+/- 2.46
FIP3.702.17 to 5.04+/- 1.44
WHIP1.3720.928 to 1.725+/- 0.398
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

383 career BF

xwOBA0.260
K%22.3%
BB%14.4%
Barrel3.7%
vs RHH

479 career BF

xwOBA0.249
K%22.8%
BB%10.5%
Barrel3.6%