Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Lange, Alex

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
26.2% K%
Range
18.2% to 32.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Volatile contact Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.96
ERA current pace4.81
ERA rolling p504.24
Observed weight34%
ERA
2.41 3.28 4.24 5.21 6.08
FIP
2.71 3.22 3.78 4.34 4.85
K%
19.6% 21.9% 24.5% 27.1% 29.4%
BB%
8.2% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 15.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%12.3%
14
Barrel allowed14.1%
3 -68 vs proj
Fastball velo95.4
69
Hard-hit allowed43.6%
25
K%21.3%
42 -33 vs proj
Whiff%27.7%
81
xwOBA allowed0.340
26 -32 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+98
22
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lange, Alex · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3602026-05-19: 0.3602026-05-21: 0.3522026-05-23: 0.3432026-05-24: 0.3432026-05-25: 0.3432026-05-26: 0.3432026-05-28: 0.3422026-05-29: 0.3412026-05-30: 0.3412026-05-31: 0.3412026-06-01: 0.340 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lange, Alex · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lange, Alex · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 31.0%Sinker: 22.4%Changeup: 20.8%4-Seam Fastball: 15.3%Cutter: 10.3%Knuckle Curve: 0.2% MIX SL 31%SI 22%CH 21%FF 15%FC 10%KC 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lange, Alex · 2026 arsenal snapshot SL: HB -0.0, IVB 3.2SLSI: HB 0.6, IVB 2.0SICH: HB -1.2, IVB 2.7CHFF: HB -0.1, IVB 1.4FFFC: HB -0.0, IVB 2.3FCKC: HB 0.1, IVB 3.4KC horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 30.8% 131 97 limited sample
SI 22.8% 97 99 limited sample
CH 20.2% 86 106 limited sample
FB 14.4% 61 91 limited sample
FC 11.8% 50 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 60%, Changeup 15%, Sinker 15%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.98
K% Δ-0.049
Sample27.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings31.7----
Batters Faced142----
K%26.2%18.2% to 32.2%+/- 7.0%
BB%12.0%6.9% to 17.7%+/- 5.4%
Whiff%31.2%25.1% to 39.5%+/- 7.2%
HR/90.840.00 to 1.56+/- 0.78
xwOBA Against0.3060.212 to 0.356+/- 0.072
Barrel% Allowed6.1%1.7% to 10.0%+/- 4.1%
ERA3.830.82 to 5.75+/- 2.46
FIP3.702.17 to 5.04+/- 1.44
WHIP1.3730.928 to 1.725+/- 0.398
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

383 career BF

xwOBA0.260
K%22.3%
BB%14.4%
Barrel3.7%
vs RHH

479 career BF

xwOBA0.249
K%22.8%
BB%10.5%
Barrel3.6%