Lange, Alex
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.96 |
| ERA current pace | 4.81 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.24 |
| Observed weight | 34% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 30.8% | 131 | 97 | limited sample |
| SI | 22.8% | 97 | 99 | limited sample |
| CH | 20.2% | 86 | 106 | limited sample |
| FB | 14.4% | 61 | 91 | limited sample |
| FC | 11.8% | 50 | 100 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +0.98 |
| K% Δ | -0.049 |
| Sample | 27.0 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 31.7 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 142 | -- | -- |
| K% | 26.2% | 18.2% to 32.2% | +/- 7.0% |
| BB% | 12.0% | 6.9% to 17.7% | +/- 5.4% |
| Whiff% | 31.2% | 25.1% to 39.5% | +/- 7.2% |
| HR/9 | 0.84 | 0.00 to 1.56 | +/- 0.78 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.306 | 0.212 to 0.356 | +/- 0.072 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 6.1% | 1.7% to 10.0% | +/- 4.1% |
| ERA | 3.83 | 0.82 to 5.75 | +/- 2.46 |
| FIP | 3.70 | 2.17 to 5.04 | +/- 1.44 |
| WHIP | 1.373 | 0.928 to 1.725 | +/- 0.398 |
383 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.260 |
| K% | 22.3% |
| BB% | 14.4% |
| Barrel | 3.7% |
479 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.249 |
| K% | 22.8% |
| BB% | 10.5% |
| Barrel | 3.6% |