Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Keller, Mitch

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
20.7% K%
Range
17.9% to 27.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
32
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
31
Arsenal7 metrics
57
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.41
ERA current pace5.14
ERA rolling p504.90
Observed weight67%
ERA
3.97 4.41 4.90 5.38 5.82
FIP
3.82 4.07 4.34 4.61 4.86
K%
17.0% 18.1% 19.2% 20.4% 21.4%
BB%
6.4% 7.0% 7.7% 8.3% 8.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
46
ERA5.14
22
BB%8.2%
58 -21 vs proj
K%18.4%
22 -15 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.354
13 -16 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.6%
51
Fastball velo93.0
26
Hard-hit allowed42.4%
27
Whiff%18.6%
15
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+105
74
Mithrandir Stuff+104
65
Slider Stuff+105
77
Changeup Stuff+108
86
Curveball Stuff+99
12
Cutter Stuff+104
71
Sinker Stuff+97
16
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Keller, Mitch · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.354 2026-07-06: 0.3542026-07-07: 0.3542026-07-08: 0.3542026-07-09: 0.3542026-07-10: 0.3542026-07-11: 0.3542026-07-12: 0.3542026-07-13: 0.3542026-07-14: 0.3542026-07-15: 0.3542026-07-16: 0.3542026-07-17: 0.354 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Keller, Mitch · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Keller, Mitch · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 31.7%Sinker: 18.9%Sweeper: 16.8%Curveball: 9.2%Changeup: 8.6%Slider: 8.1% FF32% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 32%SI 19%ST 17%CU 9%CH 9%SL 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Keller, Mitch · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 32% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.4 mphFF93 mphSinker: 19% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 92.3 mphSI92 mphSweeper: 17% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 82.1 mphST82 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 77.9 mphCU78 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 88.8 mphCH89 mphSlider: 8% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.5 mphSL87 mphCutter: 7% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 89.8 mphFC90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 33.9% 360 105 qualified
SL 25.1% 267 105 qualified
SI 16.4% 174 97 limited sample
CH 10.7% 114 108 limited sample
CB 7.1% 76 99 limited sample
FC 6.8% 72 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.328 vs 0.291 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 35%, Sweeper 19%, Sinker 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.01
K% Δ-0.023
Sample110.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings146.2----
Batters Faced627----
K%20.7%17.9% to 27.3%+/- 4.7%
BB%6.7%5.0% to 9.0%+/- 2.0%
Whiff%18.1%16.7% to 23.3%+/- 3.3%
HR/91.310.89 to 1.99+/- 0.55
xwOBA Against0.3350.289 to 0.353+/- 0.032
Barrel% Allowed8.4%6.0% to 11.1%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.133.46 to 5.95+/- 1.25
FIP3.973.20 to 4.59+/- 0.69
WHIP1.2681.099 to 1.532+/- 0.217
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2002 career BF

xwOBA0.328
K%20.2%
BB%7.2%
Barrel8.4%
vs RHH

1966 career BF

xwOBA0.291
K%20.5%
BB%5.6%
Barrel7.2%