Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Holmes, Grant

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
22.0% K%
Range
18.8% to 28.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
41
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
39
Arsenal7 metrics
37
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.52
ERA current pace3.49
ERA rolling p503.50
Observed weight73%
ERA
2.44 2.94 3.50 4.05 4.55
FIP
3.90 4.22 4.58 4.94 5.26
K%
17.5% 18.5% 19.5% 20.5% 21.4%
BB%
8.1% 8.7% 9.4% 10.0% 10.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.31
54
ERA3.49
69
BB%9.8%
40
K%17.9%
21 -28 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.342
20 -27 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.8%
28
Fastball velo93.9
42
Hard-hit allowed45.7%
8
Whiff%25.4%
71
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+101
44
Mithrandir Stuff+100
27
Slider Stuff+97
16
Changeup Stuff+92
8
Curveball Stuff+102
49
Cutter Stuff+103
66
Sinker Stuff+102
51
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Holmes, Grant · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.342 2026-09-12: 0.3332026-09-13: 0.3332026-09-14: 0.3372026-09-18: 0.3362026-09-19: 0.3362026-09-20: 0.3362026-09-21: 0.3392026-09-22: 0.3392026-09-23: 0.3392026-09-24: 0.3392026-09-25: 0.3392026-09-26: 0.342 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Holmes, Grant · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holmes, Grant · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 36.1%4-Seam Fastball: 28.0%Sinker: 12.4%Cutter: 8.4%Curveball: 7.9%Changeup: 7.2% SL36% · 85 mphprimary pitch SL 36%FF 28%SI 12%FC 8%CU 8%CH 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holmes, Grant · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 36% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 85.4 mphSL85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.2 mphFF94 mphSinker: 12% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.2 mphSI93 mphCutter: 8% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.1 mphFC92 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 82.9 mphCU83 mphChangeup: 7% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 89.3 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 34.0% 441 97 qualified
FB 30.6% 397 101 qualified
SI 12.1% 157 102 limited sample
CB 10.0% 130 102 limited sample
CH 7.3% 95 92 limited sample
FC 5.9% 76 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 35%, 4-Seam Fastball 33%, Curveball 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.56
K% Δ-0.040
Sample156.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings70.8----
Batters Faced301----
K%22.0%18.8% to 28.9%+/- 5.1%
BB%8.9%6.6% to 11.7%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%24.8%22.5% to 31.2%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.280.92 to 1.94+/- 0.51
xwOBA Against0.3150.278 to 0.347+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.3%6.5% to 11.9%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.052.87 to 5.57+/- 1.35
FIP4.103.10 to 4.85+/- 0.87
WHIP1.3321.083 to 1.568+/- 0.243
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

397 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%19.6%
BB%9.4%
Barrel8.5%
vs RHH

415 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%23.2%
BB%7.7%
Barrel8.9%