Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Holmes, Grant

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
22.0% K%
Range
18.8% to 28.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-16
37
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
38
Arsenal7 metrics
41
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-16
ERA preseason3.52
ERA current pace4.05
ERA rolling p503.82
Observed weight56%
ERA
2.85 3.31 3.82 4.32 4.78
FIP
4.06 4.35 4.68 5.01 5.30
K%
19.1% 20.4% 21.9% 23.3% 24.7%
BB%
7.7% 8.5% 9.4% 10.3% 11.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.35
43
ERA4.05
46
BB%10.4%
30 -18 vs proj
K%20.5%
37
xwOBA allowed0.335
29 -20 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.0%
24 -18 vs proj
Fastball velo94.1
45
Hard-hit allowed46.2%
10
Whiff%26.4%
75
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-16
Fastball Stuff+103
57
Mithrandir Stuff+100
31
Slider Stuff+95
13
Changeup Stuff+91
4
Curveball Stuff+102
52
Cutter Stuff+104
71
Sinker Stuff+104
60
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Holmes, Grant · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.335 2026-06-05: 0.3332026-06-06: 0.3332026-06-07: 0.3332026-06-08: 0.3332026-06-09: 0.3332026-06-10: 0.3332026-06-11: 0.3362026-06-12: 0.3362026-06-13: 0.3362026-06-14: 0.3352026-06-15: 0.3352026-06-16: 0.335 2026-06-05 2026-06-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Holmes, Grant · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holmes, Grant · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 39.6%4-Seam Fastball: 33.2%Sinker: 7.6%Curveball: 7.2%Cutter: 6.8%Changeup: 5.6% SL40% · 85 mphprimary pitch SL 40%FF 33%SI 8%CU 7%FC 7%CH 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holmes, Grant · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 40% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 85.3 mphSL85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 33% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.3 mphFF94 mphSinker: 8% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 93.3 mphSI93 mphCurveball: 7% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 82.9 mphCU83 mphCutter: 7% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.3 mphFC92 mphChangeup: 6% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 89.5 mphCH90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 38.3% 317 95 qualified
FB 35.0% 290 103 qualified
CB 10.3% 85 102 limited sample
SI 6.6% 55 104 limited sample
CH 5.0% 41 91 limited sample
FC 4.8% 40 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 35%, 4-Seam Fastball 33%, Curveball 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.00
K% Δ-0.015
Sample71.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings70.6----
Batters Faced300----
K%22.0%18.8% to 28.9%+/- 5.1%
BB%8.9%6.6% to 11.7%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%24.8%22.5% to 31.2%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.280.92 to 1.94+/- 0.51
xwOBA Against0.3150.278 to 0.347+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.3%6.5% to 11.9%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.052.87 to 5.57+/- 1.35
FIP4.103.10 to 4.85+/- 0.87
WHIP1.3321.083 to 1.568+/- 0.243
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

397 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%19.6%
BB%9.4%
Barrel8.5%
vs RHH

415 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%23.2%
BB%7.7%
Barrel8.9%