Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TOR · 2026

Hoffman, Jeff

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
27.6% K%
Range
23.2% to 40.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team TOR Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.62
ERA current pace4.81
ERA rolling p504.03
Observed weight35%
ERA
2.35 3.14 4.03 4.92 5.72
FIP
2.09 2.60 3.17 3.74 4.25
K%
26.4% 29.2% 32.4% 35.5% 38.4%
BB%
5.5% 6.9% 8.3% 9.8% 11.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.9%
63
Barrel allowed6.0%
73 +33 vs proj
Fastball velo96.7
84
Hard-hit allowed29.9%
93
K%35.4%
98 +16 vs proj
Whiff%37.2%
99 +19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.283
77
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+108
91
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Hoffman, Jeff · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2842026-05-19: 0.2842026-05-21: 0.2792026-05-23: 0.2722026-05-24: 0.2642026-05-25: 0.2642026-05-26: 0.2642026-05-28: 0.2662026-05-29: 0.2662026-05-30: 0.2622026-05-31: 0.2622026-06-01: 0.283 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hoffman, Jeff · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 41%41%Whiff: 37%37%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 30%30% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hoffman, Jeff · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 36.5%4-Seam Fastball: 33.9%Split-Finger: 24.0%Sinker: 5.6% MIX SL 37%FF 34%FS 24%SI 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hoffman, Jeff · 2026 arsenal snapshot SL: HB 0.0, IVB 2.9SLFF: HB -0.4, IVB 1.1FFFS: HB -1.0, IVB 2.7FSSI: HB 1.0, IVB 1.4SI horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 47.2% 159 108 limited sample
SL 44.8% 151 109 limited sample
SI 8.0% 27 107 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 37%, Slider 31%, Split-Finger 24%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.67
K% Δ+0.079
Sample26.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings42.4----
Batters Faced175----
K%27.6%23.2% to 40.6%+/- 8.7%
BB%8.7%4.5% to 12.5%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%27.4%24.9% to 36.2%+/- 5.6%
HR/91.320.50 to 2.16+/- 0.83
xwOBA Against0.2880.231 to 0.359+/- 0.064
Barrel% Allowed8.5%3.7% to 13.8%+/- 5.0%
ERA3.141.62 to 6.17+/- 2.28
FIP3.571.97 to 4.89+/- 1.46
WHIP1.1180.843 to 1.515+/- 0.336
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1196 career BF

xwOBA0.269
K%30.4%
BB%8.7%
Barrel10.5%
vs RHH

1344 career BF

xwOBA0.264
K%29.6%
BB%6.9%
Barrel8.6%