Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TOR · 2026

Hoffman, Jeff

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
27.6% K%
Range
23.2% to 40.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team TOR Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
64
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
71
Arsenal4 metrics
90
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.62
ERA current pace4.57
ERA rolling p504.04
Observed weight44%
ERA
2.42 3.19 4.04 4.89 5.66
FIP
2.04 2.54 3.08 3.63 4.12
K%
26.9% 29.4% 32.1% 34.9% 37.4%
BB%
5.8% 7.0% 8.3% 9.6% 10.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.39
37
ERA4.57
34
BB%7.9%
62
K%33.9%
97 +17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.274
88
Barrel allowed7.8%
47
Fastball velo96.6
81
Hard-hit allowed31.1%
94
Whiff%32.9%
98 +17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+107
83
Mithrandir Stuff+108
93
Sinker Stuff+108
94
Slider Stuff+109
92
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Hoffman, Jeff · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.274 2026-07-05: 0.2732026-07-06: 0.2732026-07-07: 0.2732026-07-08: 0.2732026-07-09: 0.2712026-07-10: 0.2712026-07-11: 0.2712026-07-12: 0.2672026-07-13: 0.2672026-07-14: 0.2742026-07-15: 0.2742026-07-16: 0.274 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hoffman, Jeff · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 33%33%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 31%31% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hoffman, Jeff · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 41.2%4-Seam Fastball: 31.8%Split-Finger: 21.8%Sinker: 5.2% SL41% · 87 mphprimary pitch SL 41%FF 32%FS 22%SI 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hoffman, Jeff · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 41% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.9 mphSL87 mph4-Seam Fastball: 32% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 96.6 mphFF97 mphSplit-Finger: 22% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 89.7 mphFS90 mphSinker: 5% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 96.2 mphSI96 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 48.3% 181 109 limited sample
FB 44.0% 165 107 limited sample
SI 7.7% 29 108 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 37%, Slider 31%, Split-Finger 24%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.45
K% Δ+0.063
Sample41.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings41.8----
Batters Faced172----
K%27.6%23.2% to 40.6%+/- 8.7%
BB%8.7%4.5% to 12.5%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%27.4%24.9% to 36.2%+/- 5.6%
HR/91.320.50 to 2.16+/- 0.83
xwOBA Against0.2880.231 to 0.359+/- 0.064
Barrel% Allowed8.5%3.7% to 13.8%+/- 5.0%
ERA3.121.62 to 6.17+/- 2.27
FIP3.571.96 to 4.89+/- 1.46
WHIP1.1180.839 to 1.515+/- 0.338
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1196 career BF

xwOBA0.269
K%30.4%
BB%8.7%
Barrel10.5%
vs RHH

1344 career BF

xwOBA0.264
K%29.6%
BB%6.9%
Barrel8.6%