Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 50%, Slider 43%, Sinker 7%.
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026
Ginkel, Kevin
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Team AZ
Archetype Balanced reliever 2
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
76
Pitching
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.77 |
| ERA current pace | 2.84 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.39 |
| Observed weight | 41% |
ERA
1.95
2.63
3.39
4.15
4.83
FIP
2.00
2.64
3.35
4.06
4.70
K%
20.9%
23.2%
25.8%
28.5%
30.8%
BB%
5.4%
6.5%
7.8%
9.0%
10.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.15
75
ERA2.84
80
BB%6.6%
81
+32 vs proj
K%25.9%
74
xwOBA allowed0.291
71
Barrel allowed10.0%
21
-26 vs proj
Fastball velo95.1
62
Hard-hit allowed44.5%
15
Whiff%30.6%
92
+28 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Slider Stuff+101
43
Fastball Stuff+105
74
Mithrandir Stuff+104
66
Sinker Stuff+108
92
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
51%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 52.2% | 205 | 101 | qualified |
| FB | 44.5% | 175 | 105 | limited sample |
| SI | 3.3% | 13 | 108 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.89 |
| K% Δ | +0.010 |
| Sample | 40.0 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 37.3 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 157 | -- | -- |
| K% | 24.9% | 18.1% to 33.8% | +/- 7.8% |
| BB% | 8.7% | 4.9% to 12.2% | +/- 3.6% |
| Whiff% | 24.9% | 20.1% to 32.6% | +/- 6.2% |
| HR/9 | 1.06 | 0.31 to 1.66 | +/- 0.67 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.303 | 0.236 to 0.361 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.9% | 3.5% to 11.8% | +/- 4.2% |
| ERA | 3.82 | 2.40 to 6.41 | +/- 2.00 |
| FIP | 3.32 | 2.02 to 5.77 | +/- 1.88 |
| WHIP | 1.259 | 0.998 to 1.645 | +/- 0.324 |
vs LHH
500 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.280 |
| K% | 25.1% |
| BB% | 8.2% |
| Barrel | 8.3% |
vs RHH
706 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.270 |
| K% | 23.2% |
| BB% | 6.7% |
| Barrel | 7.1% |