Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Flaherty, Jack

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
25.1% K%
Range
21.2% to 31.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
43
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
37
Arsenal6 metrics
17
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.01
ERA current pace4.59
ERA rolling p504.38
Observed weight64%
ERA
3.16 3.74 4.38 5.03 5.61
FIP
3.35 3.70 4.09 4.48 4.83
K%
23.4% 24.6% 26.0% 27.3% 28.5%
BB%
8.0% 8.7% 9.4% 10.2% 10.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.42
33
ERA4.59
35
BB%10.2%
33 -25 vs proj
K%25.8%
75
xwOBA allowed0.323
37
Barrel allowed9.0%
26
Fastball velo92.6
22
Hard-hit allowed46.1%
6
Whiff%24.5%
64
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Curveball Stuff+99
12
Fastball Stuff+100
32
Mithrandir Stuff+98
18
Slider Stuff+100
35
Changeup Stuff+85
1
Sinker Stuff+86
2
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Flaherty, Jack · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.323 2026-09-13: 0.3232026-09-14: 0.3232026-09-18: 0.3232026-09-19: 0.3232026-09-20: 0.3232026-09-21: 0.3232026-09-22: 0.3232026-09-23: 0.3232026-09-24: 0.3232026-09-25: 0.3232026-09-26: 0.3232026-09-27: 0.323 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Flaherty, Jack · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Flaherty, Jack · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 49.0%Slider: 24.3%Knuckle Curve: 19.0%Sinker: 4.4%Changeup: 3.2% FF49% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 49%SL 24%KC 19%SI 4%CH 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Flaherty, Jack · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 49% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 92.7 mphFF93 mphSlider: 24% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.0 mphSL85 mphKnuckle Curve: 19% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 54″ drop, 78.1 mphKC78 mphSinker: 4% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 90.9 mphSI91 mphChangeup: 3% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 85.6 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 49.5% 515 100 qualified
SL 24.8% 258 100 qualified
CB 19.7% 205 99 qualified
SI 4.0% 42 86 limited sample
CH 2.0% 21 85 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 46%, Knuckle Curve 25%, Slider 24%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.66
K% Δ+0.007
Sample96.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings78.7----
Batters Faced335----
K%25.1%21.2% to 31.8%+/- 5.3%
BB%8.2%5.9% to 10.6%+/- 2.4%
Whiff%24.9%22.1% to 29.8%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.330.91 to 2.09+/- 0.59
xwOBA Against0.3210.277 to 0.357+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed8.5%6.0% to 12.7%+/- 3.4%
ERA3.932.63 to 5.96+/- 1.67
FIP3.872.91 to 4.91+/- 1.00
WHIP1.2681.085 to 1.562+/- 0.239
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2355 career BF

xwOBA0.315
K%23.5%
BB%9.1%
Barrel8.9%
vs RHH

2207 career BF

xwOBA0.300
K%26.3%
BB%6.5%
Barrel10.2%