Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Canning, Griffin

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
20.8% K%
Range
16.2% to 26.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 30 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
29
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
33
Arsenal7 metrics
32
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.12
ERA current pace5.59
ERA rolling p505.02
Observed weight61%
ERA
3.90 4.43 5.02 5.61 6.14
FIP
3.83 4.20 4.62 5.04 5.42
K%
19.5% 20.7% 22.1% 23.5% 24.7%
BB%
8.2% 8.9% 9.7% 10.5% 11.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.55
17
ERA5.59
16
BB%10.6%
30 -25 vs proj
K%22.5%
53
xwOBA allowed0.328
31
Barrel allowed8.5%
33
Fastball velo94.4
50
Hard-hit allowed44.7%
10
Whiff%24.1%
61
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+104
69
Mithrandir Stuff+99
23
Slider Stuff+102
52
Curveball Stuff+102
43
Cutter Stuff+97
15
Fastball Stuff+97
18
Sinker Stuff+89
4
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 25%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Canning, Griffin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.328 2026-09-12: 0.3272026-09-13: 0.3272026-09-14: 0.3272026-09-18: 0.3272026-09-19: 0.3272026-09-20: 0.3272026-09-21: 0.3272026-09-22: 0.3272026-09-23: 0.3282026-09-24: 0.3282026-09-25: 0.3282026-09-26: 0.328 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Canning, Griffin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Canning, Griffin · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 24.7%4-Seam Fastball: 24.5%Slider: 23.5%Sinker: 9.8%Knuckle Curve: 8.6%Cutter: 5.8% CH25% · 90 mphprimary pitch CH 25%FF 25%SL 24%SI 10%KC 9%FC 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Canning, Griffin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Changeup: 25% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 90.3 mphCH90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 25% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.6 mphFF95 mphSlider: 24% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 87.9 mphSL88 mphSinker: 10% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.8 mphSI94 mphKnuckle Curve: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 82.1 mphKC82 mphCutter: 6% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 90.2 mphFC90 mphSweeper: 3% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 86.3 mphST86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 28.1% 217 104 qualified
SL 26.5% 204 102 qualified
FB 24.3% 187 97 limited sample
SI 10.4% 80 89 limited sample
CB 6.5% 50 102 limited sample
FC 4.3% 33 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 34%, Slider 31%, Changeup 24%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.64
K% Δ+0.018
Sample83.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings139.7----
Batters Faced606----
K%20.8%16.2% to 26.6%+/- 5.2%
BB%8.5%6.4% to 10.9%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%23.4%20.3% to 27.7%+/- 3.7%
HR/91.400.88 to 2.16+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3180.284 to 0.346+/- 0.031
Barrel% Allowed8.5%6.7% to 12.0%+/- 2.6%
ERA3.952.89 to 5.97+/- 1.54
FIP4.413.22 to 5.41+/- 1.10
WHIP1.3071.104 to 1.593+/- 0.244
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1325 career BF

xwOBA0.312
K%19.0%
BB%9.8%
Barrel8.4%
vs RHH

1353 career BF

xwOBA0.300
K%19.9%
BB%7.0%
Barrel9.1%