Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Canning, Griffin

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
20.8% K%
Range
16.2% to 26.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
22
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
27
Arsenal6 metrics
33
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.12
ERA current pace6.47
ERA rolling p505.31
Observed weight51%
ERA
4.22 4.74 5.31 5.89 6.40
FIP
3.79 4.16 4.57 4.98 5.35
K%
18.8% 20.2% 21.8% 23.5% 24.9%
BB%
8.5% 9.4% 10.3% 11.2% 12.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.66
7
ERA6.47
7
BB%12.1%
16 -35 vs proj
K%22.3%
48
xwOBA allowed0.333
30
Barrel allowed8.8%
35
Fastball velo94.1
45
Hard-hit allowed47.5%
5
Whiff%22.8%
49
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+102
47
Cutter Stuff+105
75
Fastball Stuff+96
16
Mithrandir Stuff+97
19
Sinker Stuff+94
9
Slider Stuff+99
33
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 26%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Canning, Griffin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.333 2026-07-06: 0.3372026-07-07: 0.3372026-07-08: 0.3372026-07-09: 0.3372026-07-10: 0.3372026-07-11: 0.3332026-07-12: 0.3332026-07-13: 0.3332026-07-14: 0.3332026-07-15: 0.3332026-07-16: 0.3332026-07-17: 0.333 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Canning, Griffin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 48%48% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Canning, Griffin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 25.9%Slider: 24.9%Changeup: 23.0%Sinker: 10.7%Cutter: 5.8%Knuckle Curve: 5.8% FF26% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 26%SL 25%CH 23%SI 11%FC 6%KC 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Canning, Griffin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 26% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.3 mphFF94 mphSlider: 25% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 87.4 mphSL87 mphChangeup: 23% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 90.0 mphCH90 mphSinker: 11% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 93.6 mphSI94 mphCutter: 6% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 89.6 mphFC90 mphKnuckle Curve: 6% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 81.2 mphKC81 mphSweeper: 4% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.2 mphST86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 28.3% 132 99 limited sample
CH 27.7% 129 102 limited sample
FB 26.4% 123 96 limited sample
SI 11.8% 55 94 limited sample
FC 4.1% 19 105 limited sample
CB 1.7% 8 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 34%, Slider 31%, Changeup 24%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.52
K% Δ+0.015
Sample53.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings140.9----
Batters Faced611----
K%20.8%16.2% to 26.6%+/- 5.2%
BB%8.5%6.4% to 10.9%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%23.4%20.3% to 27.7%+/- 3.7%
HR/91.400.88 to 2.16+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3180.284 to 0.346+/- 0.031
Barrel% Allowed8.5%6.7% to 12.0%+/- 2.6%
ERA3.952.89 to 5.97+/- 1.54
FIP4.413.22 to 5.41+/- 1.10
WHIP1.3071.104 to 1.593+/- 0.244
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1325 career BF

xwOBA0.312
K%19.0%
BB%9.8%
Barrel8.4%
vs RHH

1353 career BF

xwOBA0.300
K%19.9%
BB%7.0%
Barrel9.1%