Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026

Burke, Brock

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.5% K%
Range
17.9% to 28.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Balanced reliever Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
54
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
58
Arsenal5 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.07
ERA current pace2.30
ERA rolling p503.04
Observed weight58%
ERA
1.97 2.47 3.04 3.60 4.11
FIP
3.43 3.71 4.02 4.34 4.62
K%
20.1% 21.4% 22.8% 24.3% 25.6%
BB%
8.9% 9.7% 10.7% 11.6% 12.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.40
36
ERA2.30
93
BB%13.0%
11 -58 vs proj
K%22.8%
56
xwOBA allowed0.295
73
Barrel allowed7.9%
42
Fastball velo95.5
67
Hard-hit allowed34.0%
82
Whiff%24.4%
63
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+106
77
Mithrandir Stuff+103
56
Slider Stuff+101
38
Changeup Stuff+104
67
Sinker Stuff+93
8
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Burke, Brock · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.295 2026-09-13: 0.2942026-09-14: 0.2982026-09-18: 0.2982026-09-19: 0.2972026-09-20: 0.2972026-09-21: 0.2972026-09-22: 0.2972026-09-23: 0.2962026-09-24: 0.2962026-09-25: 0.2962026-09-26: 0.2952026-09-27: 0.295 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Burke, Brock · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Burke, Brock · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 40.7%Slider: 27.8%Changeup: 17.6%Sinker: 13.9% FF41% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 41%SL 28%CH 18%SI 14% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Burke, Brock · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 41% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.2 mphFF96 mphSlider: 28% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.4 mphSL86 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 87.6 mphCH88 mphSinker: 14% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 93.5 mphSI93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 41.5% 337 106 qualified
SL 27.4% 223 101 qualified
CH 18.3% 149 104 limited sample
SI 12.8% 104 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 43%, Slider 27%, Changeup 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.59
K% Δ+0.003
Sample76.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.9----
Batters Faced283----
K%22.5%17.9% to 28.3%+/- 5.2%
BB%7.6%5.5% to 10.9%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%22.9%19.9% to 27.2%+/- 3.7%
HR/91.361.16 to 2.43+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3030.275 to 0.343+/- 0.034
Barrel% Allowed8.0%5.7% to 10.8%+/- 2.5%
ERA3.892.86 to 5.84+/- 1.49
FIP3.963.24 to 4.89+/- 0.83
WHIP1.2941.089 to 1.632+/- 0.272
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

382 career BF

xwOBA0.278
K%20.3%
BB%6.4%
Barrel6.0%
vs RHH

797 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%19.6%
BB%7.1%
Barrel8.2%