Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026

Bird, Jake

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
22.7% K%
Range
15.2% to 30.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.00
ERA current pace4.76
ERA rolling p504.20
Observed weight27%
ERA
2.31 3.21 4.20 5.20 6.09
FIP
3.15 3.43 3.73 4.04 4.31
K%
18.8% 21.5% 24.5% 27.5% 30.2%
BB%
5.9% 7.3% 8.9% 10.5% 12.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%6.7%
77 +42 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.4%
55
Fastball velo94.6
55
Hard-hit allowed37.0%
65
K%29.2%
89 +35 vs proj
Whiff%31.0%
91 +27 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.307
56 -19 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+106
79
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

1 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bird, Jake · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-06-01: 0.307 2026-06-01 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bird, Jake · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 54%54%Whiff: 31%31%Called strike: 23%23%First pitch strike: 61%61%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bird, Jake · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 40.3%Sinker: 29.9%Curveball: 14.9%4-Seam Fastball: 14.9% MIX ST 40%SI 30%CU 15%FF 15% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bird, Jake · 2026 arsenal snapshot ST: HB -0.7, IVB 2.7STSI: HB 0.9, IVB 2.4SICU: HB 0.3, IVB 4.3CUFF: HB -0.0, IVB 1.5FF horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 40.2% 113 109 limited sample
SI 30.6% 86 105 limited sample
CB 14.6% 41 102 limited sample
FB 14.6% 41 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 39%, Sinker 35%, Curveball 23%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.43
K% Δ+0.065
Sample20.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.5----
Batters Faced180----
K%22.7%15.2% to 30.1%+/- 7.5%
BB%9.8%6.2% to 14.1%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%24.9%19.1% to 30.7%+/- 5.8%
HR/91.310.23 to 2.05+/- 0.91
xwOBA Against0.2870.246 to 0.363+/- 0.059
Barrel% Allowed8.0%3.9% to 13.0%+/- 4.5%
ERA4.362.16 to 7.03+/- 2.43
FIP4.112.65 to 4.14+/- 0.74
WHIP1.2720.981 to 1.807+/- 0.413
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

498 career BF

xwOBA0.324
K%19.1%
BB%10.2%
Barrel10.2%
vs RHH

612 career BF

xwOBA0.308
K%19.4%
BB%8.8%
Barrel7.5%