Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026

Bird, Jake

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
22.7% K%
Range
15.2% to 30.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
53
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
53
Arsenal5 metrics
62
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.00
ERA current pace4.50
ERA rolling p504.18
Observed weight37%
ERA
2.41 3.25 4.18 5.12 5.96
FIP
3.32 3.58 3.86 4.15 4.41
K%
18.7% 21.0% 23.7% 26.3% 28.7%
BB%
6.0% 7.3% 8.7% 10.2% 11.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.32
52
ERA4.50
37
BB%7.0%
75 +41 vs proj
K%25.4%
71 +18 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.333
29 -46 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.9%
21 -23 vs proj
Fastball velo94.5
50
Hard-hit allowed37.4%
61
Whiff%26.9%
78
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Curveball Stuff+102
50
Fastball Stuff+97
17
Mithrandir Stuff+106
82
Sinker Stuff+104
67
Slider Stuff+109
93
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bird, Jake · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.333 2026-07-05: 0.3282026-07-06: 0.3362026-07-07: 0.3332026-07-08: 0.3332026-07-09: 0.3332026-07-10: 0.3332026-07-11: 0.3382026-07-12: 0.3332026-07-13: 0.3332026-07-14: 0.3332026-07-15: 0.3332026-07-16: 0.333 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bird, Jake · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 41%41%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 22%22%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bird, Jake · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 38.8%Sinker: 34.2%4-Seam Fastball: 14.5%Curveball: 12.5% ST39% · 84 mphprimary pitch ST 39%SI 34%FF 14%CU 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bird, Jake · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sweeper: 39% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 84.5 mphST84 mphSinker: 34% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 94.8 mphSI95 mph4-Seam Fastball: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 94.0 mphFF94 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 81.0 mphCU81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 39.8% 121 109 limited sample
SI 31.9% 97 104 limited sample
CB 14.1% 43 102 limited sample
FB 14.1% 43 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 39%, Sinker 35%, Curveball 23%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.17
K% Δ+0.026
Sample32.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings38.8----
Batters Faced177----
K%22.7%15.2% to 30.1%+/- 7.5%
BB%9.8%6.2% to 14.1%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%24.9%19.1% to 30.7%+/- 5.8%
HR/91.310.23 to 2.05+/- 0.91
xwOBA Against0.2870.246 to 0.363+/- 0.059
Barrel% Allowed8.0%3.9% to 13.0%+/- 4.5%
ERA4.332.16 to 7.03+/- 2.43
FIP4.112.65 to 4.14+/- 0.74
WHIP1.2720.981 to 1.807+/- 0.413
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

498 career BF

xwOBA0.324
K%19.1%
BB%10.2%
Barrel10.2%
vs RHH

612 career BF

xwOBA0.308
K%19.4%
BB%8.8%
Barrel7.5%