Bird, Jake
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.00 |
| ERA current pace | 4.76 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.20 |
| Observed weight | 27% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 40.2% | 113 | 109 | limited sample |
| SI | 30.6% | 86 | 105 | limited sample |
| CB | 14.6% | 41 | 102 | limited sample |
| FB | 14.6% | 41 | 95 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +0.43 |
| K% Δ | +0.065 |
| Sample | 20.7 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 39.5 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 180 | -- | -- |
| K% | 22.7% | 15.2% to 30.1% | +/- 7.5% |
| BB% | 9.8% | 6.2% to 14.1% | +/- 4.0% |
| Whiff% | 24.9% | 19.1% to 30.7% | +/- 5.8% |
| HR/9 | 1.31 | 0.23 to 2.05 | +/- 0.91 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.287 | 0.246 to 0.363 | +/- 0.059 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.0% | 3.9% to 13.0% | +/- 4.5% |
| ERA | 4.36 | 2.16 to 7.03 | +/- 2.43 |
| FIP | 4.11 | 2.65 to 4.14 | +/- 0.74 |
| WHIP | 1.272 | 0.981 to 1.807 | +/- 0.413 |
498 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.324 |
| K% | 19.1% |
| BB% | 10.2% |
| Barrel | 10.2% |
612 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.308 |
| K% | 19.4% |
| BB% | 8.8% |
| Barrel | 7.5% |