Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Beeks, Jalen

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.9% K%
Range
15.3% to 25.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 33 Status IL-10
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
40
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
35
Arsenal4 metrics
32
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.07
ERA current pace3.81
ERA rolling p503.98
Observed weight34%
ERA
2.78 3.35 3.98 4.62 5.19
FIP
3.94 4.26 4.62 4.98 5.29
K%
15.7% 17.5% 19.4% 21.4% 23.1%
BB%
5.5% 6.5% 7.6% 8.7% 9.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.33
48
ERA3.81
55
BB%7.2%
73 +25 vs proj
K%17.6%
16
xwOBA allowed0.363
9 -41 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.6%
24 -21 vs proj
Fastball velo93.4
31
Hard-hit allowed43.6%
20
Whiff%22.0%
42
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+97
17
Cutter Stuff+98
18
Fastball Stuff+104
62
Mithrandir Stuff+99
29
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 51%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Beeks, Jalen · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.363 2026-07-06: 0.3632026-07-07: 0.3632026-07-08: 0.3632026-07-09: 0.3632026-07-10: 0.3632026-07-11: 0.3632026-07-12: 0.3632026-07-13: 0.3632026-07-14: 0.3632026-07-15: 0.3632026-07-16: 0.3632026-07-17: 0.363 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Beeks, Jalen · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Beeks, Jalen · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 50.7%Changeup: 39.4%Cutter: 10.0% FF51% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 51%CH 39%FC 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Beeks, Jalen · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 51% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.4 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 39% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 87.9 mphCH88 mphCutter: 10% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 81.8 mphFC82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 51.4% 185 104 limited sample
CH 38.9% 140 97 limited sample
FC 9.7% 35 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.268 vs 0.294 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 53%, Changeup 38%, Cutter 10%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.27
K% Δ-0.013
Sample29.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.4----
Batters Faced283----
K%18.9%15.3% to 25.6%+/- 5.2%
BB%8.8%6.3% to 12.0%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%23.4%20.4% to 28.2%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.190.69 to 1.97+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3150.261 to 0.339+/- 0.039
Barrel% Allowed8.0%5.4% to 10.9%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.082.96 to 6.22+/- 1.63
FIP4.273.28 to 5.10+/- 0.91
WHIP1.2911.011 to 1.600+/- 0.295
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

571 career BF

xwOBA0.268
K%20.8%
BB%7.7%
Barrel6.3%
vs RHH

1268 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%16.6%
BB%8.8%
Barrel8.3%