Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 35%, Curveball 19%, Sinker 16%.
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026
Civale, Aaron
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team ATH
Archetype Balanced starter
Age 31
Status IL-15
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.61 |
| ERA current pace | 4.20 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.39 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
ERA
3.39
3.86
4.39
4.93
5.40
FIP
3.94
4.28
4.65
5.03
5.37
K%
16.8%
18.1%
19.4%
20.8%
22.1%
BB%
5.4%
6.1%
6.8%
7.6%
8.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%6.4%
82
Barrel allowed8.6%
38
Fastball velo91.1
8
Hard-hit allowed47.7%
8
K%18.7%
23
Whiff%18.6%
18
xwOBA allowed0.350
19
-16 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+106
81
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
6Pitches
2026Season
35%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC | 38.0% | 328 | 105 | qualified |
| CB | 24.7% | 213 | 104 | qualified |
| SI | 20.7% | 179 | 102 | limited sample |
| FB | 12.7% | 110 | 103 | limited sample |
| SL | 3.8% | 33 | 106 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.18 |
| K% Δ | -0.003 |
| Sample | 60.7 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 73.6 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 312 | -- | -- |
| K% | 19.0% | 17.0% to 25.8% | +/- 4.4% |
| BB% | 7.3% | 5.5% to 9.8% | +/- 2.2% |
| Whiff% | 18.2% | 16.3% to 23.9% | +/- 3.8% |
| HR/9 | 1.41 | 1.01 to 2.19 | +/- 0.59 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.332 | 0.282 to 0.352 | +/- 0.035 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.4% | 6.3% to 11.4% | +/- 2.6% |
| ERA | 4.38 | 3.35 to 6.20 | +/- 1.42 |
| FIP | 4.34 | 3.22 to 5.25 | +/- 1.01 |
| WHIP | 1.291 | 1.069 to 1.532 | +/- 0.232 |
vs LHH
1594 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.297 |
| K% | 20.6% |
| BB% | 7.7% |
| Barrel | 8.4% |
vs RHH
1682 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.292 |
| K% | 18.4% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 8.0% |