Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Civale, Aaron

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.0% K%
Range
17.0% to 25.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Balanced starter Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
48
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
38
Arsenal6 metrics
75
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.51
ERA current pace4.20
ERA rolling p504.30
Observed weight68%
ERA
3.25 3.75 4.30 4.85 5.35
FIP
3.59 3.95 4.35 4.75 5.12
K%
17.9% 18.9% 20.0% 21.1% 22.1%
BB%
5.8% 6.3% 7.0% 7.6% 8.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.41
35
ERA4.20
47
BB%6.8%
81
K%19.8%
34
xwOBA allowed0.320
41
Barrel allowed8.1%
39
Fastball velo91.6
11
Hard-hit allowed40.3%
36
Whiff%18.9%
19
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Curveball Stuff+105
91
Cutter Stuff+106
91
Mithrandir Stuff+106
85
Sinker Stuff+101
38
Fastball Stuff+103
56
Slider Stuff+108
91
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Civale, Aaron · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.320 2026-09-13: 0.3222026-09-14: 0.3212026-09-18: 0.3202026-09-19: 0.3202026-09-20: 0.3202026-09-21: 0.3222026-09-22: 0.3222026-09-23: 0.3212026-09-24: 0.3212026-09-25: 0.3212026-09-26: 0.3202026-09-27: 0.320 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Civale, Aaron · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Civale, Aaron · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 37.4%Curveball: 25.4%Sinker: 16.0%4-Seam Fastball: 10.9%Split-Finger: 7.1%Slider: 3.1% FC37% · 88 mphprimary pitch FC 37%CU 25%SI 16%FF 11%FS 7%SL 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Civale, Aaron · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Cutter: 37% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 88.1 mphFC88 mphCurveball: 25% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 61″ drop, 77.4 mphCU77 mphSinker: 16% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 91.6 mphSI92 mph4-Seam Fastball: 11% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 91.5 mphFF92 mphSplit-Finger: 7% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 84.9 mphFS85 mphSlider: 3% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 82.6 mphSL83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 41.7% 494 106 qualified
CB 26.4% 312 105 qualified
SI 18.5% 219 101 qualified
FB 10.3% 122 103 limited sample
SL 3.1% 37 108 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 35%, Curveball 19%, Sinker 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.09
K% Δ+0.008
Sample115.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings74.4----
Batters Faced316----
K%19.0%17.0% to 25.8%+/- 4.4%
BB%7.3%5.5% to 9.8%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%18.2%16.3% to 23.9%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.421.01 to 2.20+/- 0.59
xwOBA Against0.3250.276 to 0.345+/- 0.034
Barrel% Allowed8.4%6.3% to 11.4%+/- 2.6%
ERA4.293.28 to 6.07+/- 1.39
FIP4.343.22 to 5.25+/- 1.01
WHIP1.2751.055 to 1.513+/- 0.229
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1594 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%20.6%
BB%7.7%
Barrel8.4%
vs RHH

1682 career BF

xwOBA0.292
K%18.4%
BB%5.9%
Barrel8.0%