Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 45%, Slurve 35%, Sinker 10%.
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026
Soroka, Michael
Breaking-ball driven starter profile
Team AZ
Archetype Breaking-ball attack
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.03 |
| ERA current pace | 3.25 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.60 |
| Observed weight | 55% |
ERA
2.57
3.06
3.60
4.14
4.63
FIP
2.77
3.14
3.56
3.97
4.34
K%
21.2%
22.6%
24.1%
25.6%
26.9%
BB%
5.8%
6.5%
7.2%
8.0%
8.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%5.7%
89
+46 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.5%
39
Fastball velo93.6
36
Hard-hit allowed35.2%
75
K%24.7%
65
+17 vs proj
Whiff%20.8%
31
xwOBA allowed0.319
45
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+105
77
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
5Pitches
2026Season
33%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 33.0% | 326 | 102 | qualified |
| FB | 32.6% | 322 | 105 | qualified |
| FC | 12.4% | 123 | 105 | limited sample |
| CH | 11.0% | 109 | 105 | limited sample |
| SI | 10.9% | 108 | 109 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.85 |
| K% Δ | +0.027 |
| Sample | 68.7 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 69.0 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 305 | -- | -- |
| K% | 21.9% | 18.3% to 28.2% | +/- 5.0% |
| BB% | 9.1% | 7.4% to 12.0% | +/- 2.3% |
| Whiff% | 21.5% | 18.6% to 25.9% | +/- 3.7% |
| HR/9 | 1.40 | 1.01 to 2.18 | +/- 0.59 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.307 | 0.273 to 0.336 | +/- 0.031 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.1% | 5.8% to 10.8% | +/- 2.5% |
| ERA | 4.10 | 3.15 to 6.05 | +/- 1.45 |
| FIP | 4.06 | 3.29 to 5.50 | +/- 1.10 |
| WHIP | 1.358 | 1.073 to 1.602 | +/- 0.265 |
vs LHH
902 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.288 |
| K% | 20.3% |
| BB% | 10.4% |
| Barrel | 7.3% |
vs RHH
959 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.280 |
| K% | 20.5% |
| BB% | 8.2% |
| Barrel | 7.6% |