Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026

Soroka, Michael

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
21.9% K%
Range
18.3% to 28.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team AZ Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
74
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
62
Arsenal6 metrics
67
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.03
ERA current pace3.31
ERA rolling p503.55
Observed weight67%
ERA
2.46 2.97 3.55 4.12 4.63
FIP
2.66 3.05 3.49 3.92 4.31
K%
22.0% 23.1% 24.3% 25.5% 26.6%
BB%
5.8% 6.4% 7.0% 7.7% 8.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.14
81
ERA3.31
76
BB%6.0%
89 +41 vs proj
K%24.8%
69 +20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.309
55
Barrel allowed8.1%
38
Fastball velo93.5
34
Hard-hit allowed34.6%
79
Whiff%20.8%
34
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+104
66
Mithrandir Stuff+104
68
Slider Stuff+101
41
Changeup Stuff+105
73
Cutter Stuff+102
60
Sinker Stuff+110
95
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Soroka, Michael · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.309 2026-09-13: 0.3192026-09-14: 0.3192026-09-18: 0.3152026-09-19: 0.3152026-09-20: 0.3152026-09-21: 0.3152026-09-22: 0.3152026-09-23: 0.3092026-09-24: 0.3092026-09-25: 0.3092026-09-26: 0.3092026-09-27: 0.309 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Soroka, Michael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Soroka, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slurve: 32.2%4-Seam Fastball: 32.0%Changeup: 12.2%Cutter: 12.2%Sinker: 10.6%Sweeper: 0.7% SV32% · 81 mphprimary pitch SV 32%FF 32%CH 12%FC 12%SI 11%ST 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Soroka, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Slurve: 32% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 80.6 mphSV81 mph4-Seam Fastball: 32% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 93.6 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.9 mphCH86 mphCutter: 12% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 89.1 mphFC89 mphSinker: 11% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 93.4 mphSI93 mphSweeper: 1% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 83.2 mphST83 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 90.2 mphPO90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 33.4% 468 101 qualified
FB 31.9% 447 104 qualified
FC 12.3% 173 102 limited sample
CH 12.1% 169 105 limited sample
SI 10.3% 145 110 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 45%, Slurve 35%, Sinker 10%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.79
K% Δ+0.029
Sample118.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings69.9----
Batters Faced309----
K%21.9%18.3% to 28.2%+/- 5.0%
BB%9.1%7.4% to 12.0%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%21.5%18.6% to 25.9%+/- 3.7%
HR/91.401.01 to 2.18+/- 0.59
xwOBA Against0.3070.273 to 0.336+/- 0.031
Barrel% Allowed8.1%5.8% to 10.8%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.103.15 to 6.05+/- 1.45
FIP4.063.29 to 5.50+/- 1.10
WHIP1.3581.073 to 1.602+/- 0.265
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

902 career BF

xwOBA0.288
K%20.3%
BB%10.5%
Barrel7.3%
vs RHH

959 career BF

xwOBA0.280
K%20.5%
BB%8.2%
Barrel7.6%