Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026

Soroka, Michael

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
21.9% K%
Range
18.3% to 28.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team AZ Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 29 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
72
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
60
Arsenal6 metrics
74
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.03
ERA current pace3.07
ERA rolling p503.45
Observed weight61%
ERA
2.40 2.89 3.45 4.00 4.49
FIP
2.70 3.07 3.49 3.92 4.29
K%
21.5% 22.7% 24.1% 25.5% 26.7%
BB%
5.5% 6.1% 6.8% 7.5% 8.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.15
75
ERA3.07
74
BB%5.3%
94 +50 vs proj
K%24.6%
65 +19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.309
54
Barrel allowed8.7%
35
Fastball velo93.7
38
Hard-hit allowed35.0%
76
Whiff%20.2%
26
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+105
71
Mithrandir Stuff+105
77
Slider Stuff+102
47
Changeup Stuff+106
74
Cutter Stuff+105
80
Sinker Stuff+110
98
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Soroka, Michael · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.309 2026-07-06: 0.3092026-07-07: 0.3092026-07-08: 0.3092026-07-09: 0.3092026-07-10: 0.3092026-07-11: 0.3092026-07-12: 0.3092026-07-13: 0.3092026-07-14: 0.3092026-07-15: 0.3092026-07-16: 0.3092026-07-17: 0.309 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Soroka, Michael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Soroka, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slurve: 32.7%4-Seam Fastball: 32.2%Changeup: 12.0%Cutter: 11.7%Sinker: 10.8%Sweeper: 0.6% SV33% · 81 mphprimary pitch SV 33%FF 32%CH 12%FC 12%SI 11%ST 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Soroka, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Slurve: 33% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 80.6 mphSV81 mph4-Seam Fastball: 32% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 93.7 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.9 mphCH86 mphCutter: 12% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 89.1 mphFC89 mphSinker: 11% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 93.5 mphSI93 mphSweeper: 1% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 82.9 mphST83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 33.9% 369 102 qualified
FB 31.3% 341 105 qualified
CH 12.0% 131 106 limited sample
FC 11.8% 128 105 limited sample
SI 10.9% 119 110 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 45%, Slurve 35%, Sinker 10%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.02
K% Δ+0.027
Sample89.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.6----
Batters Faced304----
K%21.9%18.3% to 28.2%+/- 5.0%
BB%9.1%7.4% to 12.0%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%21.5%18.6% to 25.9%+/- 3.7%
HR/91.401.01 to 2.18+/- 0.59
xwOBA Against0.3070.273 to 0.336+/- 0.031
Barrel% Allowed8.1%5.8% to 10.8%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.093.15 to 6.05+/- 1.45
FIP4.063.29 to 5.50+/- 1.10
WHIP1.3581.073 to 1.602+/- 0.265
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

902 career BF

xwOBA0.288
K%20.3%
BB%10.5%
Barrel7.3%
vs RHH

959 career BF

xwOBA0.280
K%20.5%
BB%8.2%
Barrel7.6%