Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

De Jesus, Enmanuel

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.6% K%
Range
2.9% to 22.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Volatile contact Age 30 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
57
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
50
Arsenal6 metrics
66
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.95
ERA current pace3.98
ERA rolling p503.96
Observed weight37%
ERA
1.82 2.83 3.96 5.08 6.09
FIP
1.29 2.27 3.35 4.44 5.41
K%
14.2% 17.3% 20.7% 24.1% 27.2%
BB%
4.2% 5.8% 7.6% 9.4% 11.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.19
71
ERA3.98
51
BB%9.2%
43
K%23.9%
60 +23 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.303
63 +34 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.4%
56
Fastball velo94.1
45
Hard-hit allowed45.3%
11
Whiff%23.1%
51
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+102
45
Cutter Stuff+103
64
Fastball Stuff+105
73
Mithrandir Stuff+105
74
Sinker Stuff+110
97
Slider Stuff+100
39
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed De Jesus, Enmanuel · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.303 2026-07-06: 0.3032026-07-07: 0.3032026-07-08: 0.3032026-07-09: 0.3032026-07-10: 0.3032026-07-11: 0.3032026-07-12: 0.3032026-07-13: 0.3032026-07-14: 0.3032026-07-15: 0.3032026-07-16: 0.3032026-07-17: 0.303 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile De Jesus, Enmanuel · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 42%42%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal De Jesus, Enmanuel · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 42.0%Changeup: 20.9%Cutter: 16.4%Sinker: 12.9%Slider: 7.8% FF42% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 42%CH 21%FC 16%SI 13%SL 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal De Jesus, Enmanuel · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 42% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.1 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 21% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 87.8 mphCH88 mphCutter: 16% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.4 mphFC85 mphSinker: 13% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 94.0 mphSI94 mphSlider: 8% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 80.1 mphSL80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 40.4% 180 105 limited sample
CH 21.1% 94 102 limited sample
FC 18.0% 80 103 limited sample
SI 12.4% 55 110 limited sample
SL 8.1% 36 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.98
K% Δ+0.033
Sample34.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings32.8----
Batters Faced146----
K%20.6%2.9% to 22.8%+/- 10.0%
BB%9.0%0.1% to 10.4%+/- 5.2%
Whiff%22.3%5.3% to 27.3%+/- 11.0%
HR/91.380.00 to 1.57+/- 0.79
xwOBA Against0.3340.038 to 0.377+/- 0.170
Barrel% Allowed7.7%0.6% to 11.1%+/- 5.2%
ERA4.960.15 to 6.00+/- 2.92
FIP4.510.77 to 6.42+/- 2.82
WHIP1.3690.262 to 1.567+/- 0.652
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

20 career BF

xwOBA0.071
K%3.9%
BB%2.0%
Barrel2.1%
vs RHH

31 career BF

xwOBA0.078
K%3.6%
BB%2.2%
Barrel2.6%