Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Leiter Jr.., Mark

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.2% K%
Range
20.7% to 34.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
58
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
64
Arsenal5 metrics
47
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.25
ERA current pace4.41
ERA rolling p504.31
Observed weight39%
ERA
2.52 3.37 4.31 5.26 6.11
FIP
2.12 2.66 3.26 3.85 4.39
K%
22.2% 24.3% 26.8% 29.2% 31.4%
BB%
5.8% 6.9% 8.2% 9.5% 10.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.36
44
ERA4.41
39
BB%6.5%
82 +36 vs proj
K%26.0%
74
xwOBA allowed0.314
51
Barrel allowed4.0%
92 +50 vs proj
Fastball velo92.2
19
Hard-hit allowed32.3%
90
Whiff%27.7%
82
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Curveball Stuff+104
76
Cutter Stuff+99
28
Fastball Stuff+92
6
Mithrandir Stuff+102
51
Sinker Stuff+105
77
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Leiter Jr.., Mark · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.314 2026-07-05: 0.3162026-07-06: 0.3162026-07-07: 0.3162026-07-08: 0.3162026-07-09: 0.3162026-07-10: 0.3162026-07-11: 0.3162026-07-12: 0.3162026-07-13: 0.3162026-07-14: 0.3142026-07-15: 0.3142026-07-16: 0.314 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Leiter Jr.., Mark · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Leiter Jr.., Mark · 2026 arsenal snapshot Split-Finger: 32.2%Sinker: 26.9%Curveball: 18.7%4-Seam Fastball: 12.6%Cutter: 8.7%Slider: 0.9% FS32% · 84 mphprimary pitch FS 32%SI 27%CU 19%FF 13%FC 9%SL 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Leiter Jr.., Mark · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Split-Finger: 32% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 84.3 mphFS84 mphSinker: 27% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 92.2 mphSI92 mphCurveball: 19% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 67″ drop, 74.0 mphCU74 mph4-Seam Fastball: 13% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 92.3 mphFF92 mphCutter: 9% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 89.8 mphFC90 mphSlider: 1% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 82.5 mphSL83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 37.7% 104 105 limited sample
CB 26.4% 73 104 limited sample
FB 21.4% 59 92 limited sample
FC 12.7% 35 99 limited sample
SL 1.8% 5 113 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 38%, Split-Finger 31%, Curveball 25%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.27
K% Δ+0.008
Sample34.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings38.5----
Batters Faced170----
K%25.2%20.7% to 34.6%+/- 7.0%
BB%8.8%5.6% to 13.0%+/- 3.7%
Whiff%28.0%24.5% to 36.3%+/- 5.9%
HR/91.170.44 to 1.94+/- 0.75
xwOBA Against0.3120.252 to 0.360+/- 0.054
Barrel% Allowed8.1%4.4% to 11.4%+/- 3.5%
ERA4.142.30 to 7.26+/- 2.48
FIP3.642.08 to 5.22+/- 1.57
WHIP1.3061.005 to 1.782+/- 0.389
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

893 career BF

xwOBA0.282
K%28.1%
BB%9.5%
Barrel6.9%
vs RHH

751 career BF

xwOBA0.289
K%23.9%
BB%7.5%
Barrel7.8%