Santana, Dennis
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.86 |
| ERA current pace | 4.94 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.22 |
| Observed weight | 33% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 35.8% | 147 | 96 | limited sample |
| SL | 34.8% | 143 | 103 | limited sample |
| CH | 14.6% | 60 | 104 | limited sample |
| SI | 10.0% | 41 | 100 | limited sample |
| FC | 4.9% | 20 | 104 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +0.90 |
| K% Δ | -0.052 |
| Sample | 26.3 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 40.0 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 161 | -- | -- |
| K% | 23.0% | 17.5% to 30.1% | +/- 6.3% |
| BB% | 8.0% | 4.7% to 11.7% | +/- 3.5% |
| Whiff% | 25.2% | 21.1% to 30.9% | +/- 4.9% |
| HR/9 | 1.03 | 0.55 to 1.78 | +/- 0.62 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.313 | 0.246 to 0.350 | +/- 0.052 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.7% | 5.1% to 12.8% | +/- 3.8% |
| ERA | 4.04 | 1.31 to 5.42 | +/- 2.06 |
| FIP | 3.74 | 2.77 to 4.99 | +/- 1.11 |
| WHIP | 1.240 | 0.820 to 1.506 | +/- 0.343 |
500 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.278 |
| K% | 21.6% |
| BB% | 8.4% |
| Barrel | 8.3% |
801 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.272 |
| K% | 21.7% |
| BB% | 5.6% |
| Barrel | 8.6% |