Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026

Santana, Dennis

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.0% K%
Range
17.5% to 30.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team AZ Archetype Volatile contact Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
31
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
38
Arsenal6 metrics
55
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.83
ERA current pace5.43
ERA rolling p504.66
Observed weight52%
ERA
3.22 3.90 4.66 5.42 6.11
FIP
3.59 3.96 4.37 4.77 5.14
K%
18.3% 19.9% 21.8% 23.6% 25.2%
BB%
6.5% 7.5% 8.6% 9.7% 10.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.42
33
ERA5.43
18
BB%9.7%
41 -21 vs proj
K%19.7%
33 -24 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.331
30 -23 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.8%
44
Fastball velo94.0
43
Hard-hit allowed39.4%
42
Whiff%23.2%
55
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Mithrandir Stuff+102
48
Slider Stuff+104
68
Changeup Stuff+104
65
Cutter Stuff+106
93
Fastball Stuff+99
24
Sinker Stuff+99
30
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Santana, Dennis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.331 2026-09-13: 0.3302026-09-14: 0.3302026-09-18: 0.3242026-09-19: 0.3242026-09-20: 0.3242026-09-21: 0.3242026-09-22: 0.3242026-09-23: 0.3242026-09-24: 0.3242026-09-25: 0.3242026-09-26: 0.3332026-09-27: 0.331 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Santana, Dennis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Santana, Dennis · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 35.8%4-Seam Fastball: 27.0%Changeup: 14.3%Sinker: 12.4%Cutter: 10.6% SL36% · 85 mphprimary pitch SL 36%FF 27%CH 14%SI 12%FC 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Santana, Dennis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Slider: 36% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 85.4 mphSL85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 27% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 94.0 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 87.9 mphCH88 mphSinker: 12% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.9 mphSI94 mphCutter: 11% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 89.8 mphFC90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 35.7% 201 104 qualified
FB 32.0% 180 99 limited sample
CH 13.5% 76 104 limited sample
SI 11.4% 64 99 limited sample
FC 7.5% 42 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 46%, 4-Seam Fastball 29%, Cutter 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.42
K% Δ-0.033
Sample58.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.0----
Batters Faced157----
K%23.0%17.5% to 30.1%+/- 6.3%
BB%8.0%4.7% to 11.7%+/- 3.5%
Whiff%25.2%21.1% to 30.9%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.080.57 to 1.87+/- 0.65
xwOBA Against0.3100.244 to 0.347+/- 0.052
Barrel% Allowed8.7%5.1% to 12.8%+/- 3.8%
ERA4.011.30 to 5.38+/- 2.04
FIP3.742.77 to 4.95+/- 1.09
WHIP1.2250.809 to 1.488+/- 0.339
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

500 career BF

xwOBA0.278
K%21.6%
BB%8.4%
Barrel8.3%
vs RHH

801 career BF

xwOBA0.272
K%21.7%
BB%5.6%
Barrel8.6%