Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Santana, Dennis

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.0% K%
Range
17.5% to 30.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Volatile contact Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
25
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
35
Arsenal6 metrics
53
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.86
ERA current pace5.80
ERA rolling p504.72
Observed weight44%
ERA
3.25 3.95 4.72 5.49 6.18
FIP
3.50 3.87 4.28 4.69 5.06
K%
18.6% 20.5% 22.5% 24.6% 26.4%
BB%
6.8% 7.9% 9.1% 10.3% 11.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.44
29
ERA5.80
13
BB%11.1%
24 -38 vs proj
K%20.6%
37 -17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.341
24 -27 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.7%
35
Fastball velo94.0
44
Hard-hit allowed38.6%
53
Whiff%23.4%
54
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+104
69
Cutter Stuff+106
92
Fastball Stuff+97
19
Mithrandir Stuff+101
40
Sinker Stuff+101
40
Slider Stuff+103
57
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Santana, Dennis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.341 2026-07-06: 0.3342026-07-07: 0.3332026-07-08: 0.3332026-07-09: 0.3332026-07-10: 0.3392026-07-11: 0.3452026-07-12: 0.3452026-07-13: 0.3412026-07-14: 0.3412026-07-15: 0.3412026-07-16: 0.3412026-07-17: 0.341 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Santana, Dennis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Santana, Dennis · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 35.3%4-Seam Fastball: 30.5%Changeup: 15.6%Sinker: 12.1%Cutter: 6.5% SL35% · 86 mphprimary pitch SL 35%FF 30%CH 16%SI 12%FC 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Santana, Dennis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Slider: 35% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.5 mphSL86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 30% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 94.1 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 16% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 87.9 mphCH88 mphSinker: 12% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 94.0 mphSI94 mphCutter: 7% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 90.7 mphFC91 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 36.1% 165 103 limited sample
FB 36.1% 165 97 limited sample
CH 13.8% 63 104 limited sample
SI 9.2% 42 101 limited sample
FC 4.8% 22 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 46%, 4-Seam Fastball 29%, Cutter 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.76
K% Δ-0.023
Sample42.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.5----
Batters Faced159----
K%23.0%17.5% to 30.1%+/- 6.3%
BB%8.0%4.7% to 11.7%+/- 3.5%
Whiff%25.2%21.1% to 30.9%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.030.55 to 1.78+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3130.246 to 0.350+/- 0.052
Barrel% Allowed8.7%5.1% to 12.8%+/- 3.8%
ERA4.041.31 to 5.42+/- 2.06
FIP3.742.77 to 4.95+/- 1.09
WHIP1.2400.819 to 1.506+/- 0.343
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

500 career BF

xwOBA0.278
K%21.6%
BB%8.4%
Barrel8.3%
vs RHH

801 career BF

xwOBA0.272
K%21.7%
BB%5.6%
Barrel8.6%