Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026

Loáisiga, Jonathan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.0% K%
Range
12.0% to 27.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team AZ Archetype Volatile contact Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
79
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
79
Arsenal5 metrics
77
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.23
ERA current pace2.17
ERA rolling p502.81
Observed weight40%
ERA
1.15 1.94 2.81 3.68 4.46
FIP
2.69 3.20 3.76 4.32 4.82
K%
13.7% 16.0% 18.7% 21.3% 23.7%
BB%
3.4% 4.5% 5.7% 7.0% 8.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.02
89
ERA2.17
95
BB%5.1%
95
K%19.0%
26
xwOBA allowed0.271
89 +29 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.0%
85
Fastball velo97.5
91
Hard-hit allowed32.8%
88
Whiff%22.8%
48
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+102
46
Curveball Stuff+107
98
Fastball Stuff+102
49
Mithrandir Stuff+108
91
Sinker Stuff+111
98
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Loáisiga, Jonathan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.271 2026-07-06: 0.2802026-07-07: 0.2802026-07-08: 0.2802026-07-09: 0.2772026-07-10: 0.2772026-07-11: 0.2772026-07-12: 0.2722026-07-13: 0.2722026-07-14: 0.2712026-07-15: 0.2712026-07-16: 0.2712026-07-17: 0.271 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Loáisiga, Jonathan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Loáisiga, Jonathan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 30.6%Sinker: 30.5%Curveball: 17.9%4-Seam Fastball: 17.8%Cutter: 3.3% CH31% · 91 mphprimary pitch CH 31%SI 30%CU 18%FF 18%FC 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Loáisiga, Jonathan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Changeup: 31% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 90.8 mphCH91 mphSinker: 30% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 97.6 mphSI98 mphCurveball: 18% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 89.1 mphCU89 mph4-Seam Fastball: 18% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 97.4 mphFF97 mphCutter: 3% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 95.6 mphFC96 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 32.6% 120 111 limited sample
CH 27.4% 101 102 limited sample
FB 19.8% 73 102 limited sample
CB 19.0% 70 107 limited sample
FC 1.1% 4 118 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 58%, Changeup 19%, Curveball 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.61
K% Δ-0.020
Sample40.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings31.4----
Batters Faced141----
K%21.0%12.0% to 27.9%+/- 7.9%
BB%6.2%2.9% to 10.0%+/- 3.5%
Whiff%22.8%17.4% to 28.1%+/- 5.3%
HR/91.320.41 to 2.45+/- 1.02
xwOBA Against0.3050.209 to 0.350+/- 0.071
Barrel% Allowed6.3%2.3% to 9.2%+/- 3.4%
ERA3.781.44 to 6.03+/- 2.29
FIP3.932.61 to 5.56+/- 1.47
WHIP1.2761.044 to 1.722+/- 0.339
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

494 career BF

xwOBA0.236
K%14.5%
BB%5.4%
Barrel4.4%
vs RHH

716 career BF

xwOBA0.223
K%15.9%
BB%4.1%
Barrel4.0%