Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026

Loáisiga, Jonathan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.0% K%
Range
12.0% to 27.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team AZ Archetype Volatile contact Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
80
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
79
Arsenal6 metrics
86
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.23
ERA current pace2.21
ERA rolling p502.68
Observed weight53%
ERA
1.06 1.83 2.68 3.54 4.31
FIP
2.56 3.06 3.61 4.16 4.65
K%
14.7% 16.6% 18.8% 20.9% 22.8%
BB%
3.5% 4.4% 5.4% 6.4% 7.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.05
89
ERA2.21
94
BB%4.7%
97
K%19.0%
29
xwOBA allowed0.269
90 +29 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.3%
92 +23 vs proj
Fastball velo97.8
93
Hard-hit allowed32.2%
90
Whiff%21.1%
36 -15 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Mithrandir Stuff+108
96
Sinker Stuff+112
99
Changeup Stuff+103
55
Curveball Stuff+108
99
Cutter Stuff+107
96
Fastball Stuff+105
71
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Loáisiga, Jonathan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.269 2026-09-13: 0.2682026-09-14: 0.2682026-09-18: 0.2692026-09-19: 0.2692026-09-20: 0.2692026-09-21: 0.2692026-09-22: 0.2692026-09-23: 0.2692026-09-24: 0.2682026-09-25: 0.2682026-09-26: 0.2682026-09-27: 0.269 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Loáisiga, Jonathan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Loáisiga, Jonathan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 34.3%Changeup: 27.3%4-Seam Fastball: 16.8%Curveball: 15.1%Cutter: 6.5% SI34% · 98 mphprimary pitch SI 34%CH 27%FF 17%CU 15%FC 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Loáisiga, Jonathan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Sinker: 34% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 97.9 mphSI98 mphChangeup: 27% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 91.0 mphCH91 mph4-Seam Fastball: 17% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 97.6 mphFF98 mphCurveball: 15% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 89.4 mphCU89 mphCutter: 7% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 95.9 mphFC96 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 34.5% 210 112 qualified
CH 25.5% 155 103 limited sample
FB 20.2% 123 105 limited sample
CB 14.8% 90 108 limited sample
FC 5.1% 31 107 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 58%, Changeup 19%, Curveball 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.57
K% Δ-0.020
Sample69.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings30.9----
Batters Faced139----
K%21.0%12.0% to 27.9%+/- 7.9%
BB%6.2%2.9% to 10.0%+/- 3.5%
Whiff%22.8%17.4% to 28.1%+/- 5.3%
HR/91.320.41 to 2.45+/- 1.02
xwOBA Against0.3050.209 to 0.350+/- 0.071
Barrel% Allowed6.3%2.3% to 9.2%+/- 3.4%
ERA3.781.44 to 6.03+/- 2.29
FIP3.932.61 to 5.56+/- 1.47
WHIP1.2761.044 to 1.722+/- 0.339
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

494 career BF

xwOBA0.236
K%14.5%
BB%5.4%
Barrel4.4%
vs RHH

716 career BF

xwOBA0.223
K%15.9%
BB%4.1%
Barrel4.0%