Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Soto, Gregory

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
25.1% K%
Range
18.0% to 32.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.83
ERA current pace2.13
ERA rolling p503.28
Observed weight32%
ERA
1.47 2.33 3.28 4.23 5.09
FIP
2.33 2.79 3.30 3.81 4.28
K%
22.8% 25.2% 27.9% 30.6% 33.0%
BB%
6.8% 8.2% 9.7% 11.2% 12.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%9.6%
36
Barrel allowed7.7%
51 -17 vs proj
Fastball velo96.4
80
Hard-hit allowed38.5%
54
K%31.6%
95 +25 vs proj
Whiff%26.1%
72
xwOBA allowed0.247
93 +30 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+100
36
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Soto, Gregory · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2462026-05-19: 0.2462026-05-21: 0.2382026-05-23: 0.2382026-05-24: 0.2382026-05-25: 0.2402026-05-26: 0.2352026-05-28: 0.2352026-05-29: 0.2352026-05-30: 0.2352026-05-31: 0.2312026-06-01: 0.247 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Soto, Gregory · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Soto, Gregory · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 34.8%Sweeper: 22.6%4-Seam Fastball: 20.3%Slider: 19.9%Split-Finger: 2.3% MIX SI 35%ST 23%FF 20%SL 20%FS 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Soto, Gregory · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB -0.4, IVB 1.8SIST: HB 0.5, IVB 3.3STFF: HB -0.4, IVB 1.2FFSL: HB 0.3, IVB 3.0SLFS: HB -1.4, IVB 2.4FS horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 44.3% 181 100 limited sample
SI 35.5% 145 102 limited sample
FB 20.3% 83 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.270 vs 0.306 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 53%, Slider 32%, Sweeper 7%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.71
K% Δ+0.064
Sample29.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.9----
Batters Faced184----
K%25.1%18.0% to 32.2%+/- 7.1%
BB%9.4%6.5% to 14.3%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%27.4%22.2% to 34.4%+/- 6.1%
HR/90.960.51 to 1.72+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.3000.258 to 0.364+/- 0.053
Barrel% Allowed6.5%3.2% to 10.3%+/- 3.5%
ERA3.842.16 to 6.98+/- 2.41
FIP3.482.46 to 5.06+/- 1.30
WHIP1.3091.027 to 1.915+/- 0.444
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

592 career BF

xwOBA0.270
K%22.9%
BB%8.7%
Barrel4.7%
vs RHH

1201 career BF

xwOBA0.306
K%21.9%
BB%9.9%
Barrel5.8%