Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026

Yarbrough, Ryan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.7% K%
Range
13.5% to 23.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
55
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
58
Arsenal6 metrics
57
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.43
ERA current pace3.60
ERA rolling p503.97
Observed weight55%
ERA
2.78 3.35 3.97 4.60 5.16
FIP
3.31 3.59 3.89 4.19 4.46
K%
14.7% 16.0% 17.5% 18.9% 20.3%
BB%
6.4% 7.2% 8.1% 8.9% 9.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.28
59
ERA3.60
66
BB%8.5%
55
K%17.3%
16
xwOBA allowed0.286
80 +34 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.3%
97 +52 vs proj
Fastball velo87.1
1
Hard-hit allowed26.3%
99
Whiff%22.2%
48
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Cutter Stuff+104
76
Mithrandir Stuff+103
61
Changeup Stuff+111
97
Fastball Stuff+95
12
Sinker Stuff+104
67
Slider Stuff+99
29
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Yarbrough, Ryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.286 2026-09-12: 0.2892026-09-13: 0.2832026-09-14: 0.2832026-09-18: 0.2792026-09-19: 0.2812026-09-20: 0.2812026-09-21: 0.2812026-09-22: 0.2812026-09-23: 0.2842026-09-24: 0.2842026-09-25: 0.2842026-09-26: 0.286 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Yarbrough, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 26%26% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Yarbrough, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 28.7%Changeup: 22.8%Sweeper: 19.3%4-Seam Fastball: 15.8%Sinker: 13.4% FC29% · 85 mphprimary pitch FC 29%CH 23%ST 19%FF 16%SI 13% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Yarbrough, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Cutter: 29% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 84.9 mphFC85 mphChangeup: 23% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 77.6 mphCH78 mphSweeper: 19% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 71.6 mphST72 mph4-Seam Fastball: 16% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 87.4 mphFF87 mphSinker: 13% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 86.7 mphSI87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 31.9% 220 104 qualified
CH 23.0% 159 111 limited sample
SL 18.7% 129 99 limited sample
FB 15.7% 108 95 limited sample
SI 10.7% 74 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.283 vs 0.321 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 26%, Changeup 20%, Sinker 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.83
K% Δ+0.005
Sample67.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings70.9----
Batters Faced297----
K%16.7%13.5% to 23.8%+/- 5.1%
BB%7.6%5.2% to 10.5%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%20.7%18.1% to 25.8%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.441.00 to 2.39+/- 0.69
xwOBA Against0.3160.282 to 0.363+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed7.8%5.5% to 10.6%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.432.90 to 6.25+/- 1.67
FIP4.753.71 to 5.33+/- 0.81
WHIP1.2871.034 to 1.547+/- 0.257
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

982 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%18.3%
BB%5.6%
Barrel5.9%
vs RHH

2741 career BF

xwOBA0.321
K%15.9%
BB%7.7%
Barrel7.7%