Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

Williams, Devin

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
32.1% K%
Range
26.1% to 41.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
47
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
62
Arsenal3 metrics
71
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.84
ERA current pace4.66
ERA rolling p504.20
Observed weight44%
ERA
2.49 3.30 4.20 5.10 5.91
FIP
1.46 2.24 3.11 3.98 4.77
K%
26.8% 29.1% 31.6% 34.1% 36.4%
BB%
8.0% 9.4% 10.9% 12.5% 13.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.64
10
ERA4.66
34
BB%11.8%
20
K%28.3%
87
xwOBA allowed0.282
83
Barrel allowed4.5%
90 +57 vs proj
Fastball velo93.9
41
Hard-hit allowed30.0%
96
Whiff%32.2%
97
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+113
99
Fastball Stuff+101
39
Mithrandir Stuff+105
76
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 52%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Williams, Devin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.282 2026-09-12: 0.2822026-09-13: 0.2822026-09-14: 0.2822026-09-18: 0.2822026-09-19: 0.2822026-09-20: 0.2822026-09-21: 0.2822026-09-22: 0.2822026-09-23: 0.2822026-09-24: 0.2822026-09-25: 0.2822026-09-26: 0.282 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Williams, Devin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 42%42%Whiff: 32%32%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 30%30% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Williams, Devin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 52.0%Changeup: 46.2%Cutter: 1.3%Slider: 0.4% FF52% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 52%CH 46%FC 1%SL 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Williams, Devin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 52% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.9 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 46% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 83.8 mphCH84 mphCutter: 1% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 88.5 mphFC89 mphSlider: 0% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 85.3 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 51.2% 241 101 qualified
CH 47.8% 225 113 qualified
FC 0.6% 3 99 limited sample
SL 0.4% 2 73 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Changeup 52%, 4-Seam Fastball 48%, Cutter 0%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.36
K% Δ-0.038
Sample39.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings37.0----
Batters Faced153----
K%32.1%26.1% to 41.8%+/- 7.9%
BB%11.1%6.0% to 15.4%+/- 4.7%
Whiff%31.5%28.3% to 38.9%+/- 5.3%
HR/91.010.38 to 1.88+/- 0.75
xwOBA Against0.2890.206 to 0.364+/- 0.079
Barrel% Allowed8.6%4.0% to 13.1%+/- 4.6%
ERA3.301.49 to 6.28+/- 2.40
FIP3.301.32 to 5.97+/- 2.32
WHIP1.1130.836 to 1.542+/- 0.353
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

632 career BF

xwOBA0.261
K%30.2%
BB%11.7%
Barrel8.5%
vs RHH

664 career BF

xwOBA0.246
K%35.1%
BB%8.8%
Barrel8.0%