Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Sulser, Cole

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.4% K%
Range
16.5% to 31.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 36 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.62
ERA current pace3.68
ERA rolling p503.64
Observed weight31%
ERA
1.83 2.69 3.64 4.59 5.44
FIP
2.97 3.53 4.16 4.78 5.34
K%
16.8% 19.4% 22.2% 25.1% 27.6%
BB%
5.7% 7.2% 8.8% 10.4% 11.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.3%
57 +21 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.4%
13 -60 vs proj
Fastball velo92.0
17
Hard-hit allowed43.0%
28
K%17.6%
17 -45 vs proj
Whiff%20.3%
27 -44 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.329
39 -30 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+101
40
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sulser, Cole · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3212026-05-19: 0.3212026-05-21: 0.3212026-05-23: 0.3212026-05-24: 0.3212026-05-25: 0.3212026-05-26: 0.3212026-05-28: 0.3212026-05-29: 0.3212026-05-30: 0.3212026-05-31: 0.3212026-06-01: 0.329 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sulser, Cole · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 30%30%Zone: 42%42%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sulser, Cole · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 44.5%Changeup: 40.2%Cutter: 13.9%Sweeper: 1.2%Pitch Out: 0.2% MIX FF 44%CH 40%FC 14%ST 1%PO 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sulser, Cole · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.1, IVB 1.1FFCH: HB -0.4, IVB 3.1CHFC: HB -0.0, IVB 2.3FCST: HB -1.2, IVB 3.1STPO: HB -0.5, IVB 1.5PO horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 44.9% 166 112 limited sample
CH 40.3% 149 91 limited sample
FC 13.5% 50 105 limited sample
SL 1.4% 5 70 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 40%, Changeup 38%, Cutter 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.11
K% Δ-0.068
Sample24.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings31.8----
Batters Faced130----
K%24.4%16.5% to 31.6%+/- 7.5%
BB%9.6%5.5% to 13.8%+/- 4.2%
Whiff%26.0%19.6% to 32.7%+/- 6.5%
HR/90.910.24 to 1.69+/- 0.73
xwOBA Against0.2920.218 to 0.362+/- 0.072
Barrel% Allowed6.0%1.0% to 9.6%+/- 4.3%
ERA3.570.48 to 5.25+/- 2.39
FIP3.262.07 to 5.20+/- 1.57
WHIP1.2620.824 to 1.621+/- 0.398
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

361 career BF

xwOBA0.235
K%21.8%
BB%9.6%
Barrel3.2%
vs RHH

417 career BF

xwOBA0.230
K%22.0%
BB%7.8%
Barrel3.0%