Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Speier, Gabe

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
28.2% K%
Range
21.3% to 36.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
53
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
46
Arsenal4 metrics
55
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.34
ERA current pace2.22
ERA rolling p502.99
Observed weight31%
ERA
1.34 2.12 2.99 3.86 4.64
FIP
2.53 3.03 3.59 4.15 4.66
K%
19.4% 22.0% 25.0% 27.9% 30.5%
BB%
4.4% 5.8% 7.4% 8.9% 10.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.32
50
ERA2.22
93
BB%8.3%
57 -20 vs proj
K%18.3%
21 -64 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.318
46 -27 vs proj
Barrel allowed13.2%
4 -35 vs proj
Fastball velo95.1
60
Hard-hit allowed39.5%
47
Whiff%20.8%
32 -39 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+104
66
Mithrandir Stuff+104
65
Sinker Stuff+105
72
Slider Stuff+97
18
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Speier, Gabe · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.318 2026-07-05: 0.2992026-07-06: 0.2992026-07-07: 0.2902026-07-08: 0.2902026-07-09: 0.3122026-07-10: 0.3122026-07-11: 0.3122026-07-12: 0.3122026-07-13: 0.3172026-07-14: 0.3182026-07-15: 0.3182026-07-16: 0.318 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Speier, Gabe · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 33%33%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Speier, Gabe · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 38.9%Slider: 30.7%Sinker: 29.6%Changeup: 0.5%Sweeper: 0.3% FF39% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 39%SL 31%SI 30%CH 1%ST 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Speier, Gabe · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 39% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 95.3 mphFF95 mphSlider: 31% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 84.1 mphSL84 mphSinker: 30% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 94.8 mphSI95 mphChangeup: 1% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.6 mphCH90 mphSweeper: 0% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 82.8 mphST83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 36.8% 99 104 limited sample
SI 31.6% 85 105 limited sample
SL 31.2% 84 97 limited sample
CH 0.4% 1 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.238 vs 0.271 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 45%, Sinker 29%, Slider 26%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.08
K% Δ-0.098
Sample25.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings37.8----
Batters Faced153----
K%28.2%21.3% to 36.9%+/- 7.8%
BB%6.9%3.3% to 11.4%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%25.5%19.7% to 31.1%+/- 5.7%
HR/91.100.42 to 1.89+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.2890.239 to 0.336+/- 0.049
Barrel% Allowed8.4%4.8% to 12.8%+/- 4.0%
ERA3.301.42 to 5.79+/- 2.18
FIP3.122.04 to 4.87+/- 1.41
WHIP1.0810.816 to 1.467+/- 0.325
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

375 career BF

xwOBA0.238
K%30.0%
BB%4.8%
Barrel7.8%
vs RHH

457 career BF

xwOBA0.271
K%25.2%
BB%6.1%
Barrel9.0%