Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Speier, Gabe

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
28.2% K%
Range
21.3% to 36.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
72
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
59
Arsenal4 metrics
65
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.34
ERA current pace3.00
ERA rolling p503.18
Observed weight45%
ERA
1.63 2.37 3.18 4.00 4.74
FIP
2.42 2.90 3.42 3.95 4.43
K%
21.3% 23.5% 25.9% 28.4% 30.6%
BB%
4.8% 6.0% 7.3% 8.6% 9.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.17
78
ERA3.00
83
BB%7.7%
68
K%23.5%
61 -26 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.297
71
Barrel allowed10.9%
9 -27 vs proj
Fastball velo95.3
64
Hard-hit allowed38.3%
50
Whiff%21.9%
45 -27 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+105
75
Mithrandir Stuff+106
83
Sinker Stuff+109
91
Slider Stuff+96
13
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Speier, Gabe · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.297 2026-09-13: 0.3002026-09-14: 0.3002026-09-18: 0.2982026-09-19: 0.3032026-09-20: 0.3032026-09-21: 0.2982026-09-22: 0.2982026-09-23: 0.2982026-09-24: 0.2962026-09-25: 0.2962026-09-26: 0.2962026-09-27: 0.297 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Speier, Gabe · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 53%53%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Speier, Gabe · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 40.2%Sinker: 32.6%Slider: 26.4%Changeup: 0.4%Sweeper: 0.4% FF40% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 40%SI 33%SL 26%CH 0%ST 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Speier, Gabe · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 40% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 95.4 mphFF95 mphSinker: 33% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 95.1 mphSI95 mphSlider: 26% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 84.2 mphSL84 mphChangeup: 0% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 90.3 mphCH90 mphSweeper: 0% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 81.9 mphST82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 38.3% 174 105 limited sample
SI 35.0% 159 109 limited sample
SL 26.4% 120 96 limited sample
CH 0.2% 1 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.238 vs 0.271 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 45%, Sinker 29%, Slider 26%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.30
K% Δ-0.047
Sample46.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings37.5----
Batters Faced151----
K%28.2%21.3% to 36.9%+/- 7.8%
BB%6.9%3.3% to 11.4%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%25.5%19.7% to 31.1%+/- 5.7%
HR/91.100.42 to 1.89+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.2890.239 to 0.336+/- 0.049
Barrel% Allowed8.4%4.8% to 12.8%+/- 4.0%
ERA3.301.42 to 5.79+/- 2.18
FIP3.122.04 to 4.87+/- 1.41
WHIP1.0810.816 to 1.467+/- 0.325
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

375 career BF

xwOBA0.238
K%30.0%
BB%4.8%
Barrel7.8%
vs RHH

457 career BF

xwOBA0.271
K%25.2%
BB%6.1%
Barrel9.0%