Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Saucedo, Tayler

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.9% K%
Range
16.2% to 28.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Volatile contact Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
89
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
83
Arsenal5 metrics
13
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.24
ERA current pace2.53
ERA rolling p503.76
Observed weight28%
ERA
2.01 2.84 3.76 4.69 5.52
FIP
2.35 2.87 3.44 4.01 4.53
K%
19.2% 21.4% 23.8% 26.3% 28.4%
BB%
5.7% 7.2% 9.0% 10.7% 12.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.96
95
ERA2.53
91
BB%7.5%
70 +30 vs proj
K%31.2%
96 +53 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.256
94 +56 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.6%
80 +17 vs proj
Fastball velo92.4
19
Hard-hit allowed27.8%
98
Whiff%36.0%
99 +36 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+96
19
Fastball Stuff+94
9
Mithrandir Stuff+96
14
Sinker Stuff+94
9
Slider Stuff+97
16
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

10 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Saucedo, Tayler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.256 2026-09-18: 0.2542026-09-19: 0.2542026-09-20: 0.2542026-09-21: 0.2462026-09-22: 0.2462026-09-23: 0.2572026-09-24: 0.2592026-09-25: 0.2592026-09-26: 0.2562026-09-27: 0.256 2026-09-18 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Saucedo, Tayler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 42%42%Whiff: 36%36%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 58%58%Hard hit allowed: 28%28% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Saucedo, Tayler · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 32.2%Slider: 25.1%Sinker: 18.0%4-Seam Fastball: 14.8%Changeup: 9.8% ST32% · 82 mphprimary pitch ST 32%SL 25%SI 18%FF 15%CH 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Saucedo, Tayler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 32% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 82.1 mphST82 mphSlider: 25% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 87.1 mphSL87 mphSinker: 18% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 92.3 mphSI92 mph4-Seam Fastball: 15% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 92.5 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 17″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 86.3 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 63.1% 147 97 limited sample
SI 18.0% 42 94 limited sample
FB 11.2% 26 94 limited sample
CH 7.7% 18 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.240 vs 0.275 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 51%, Changeup 18%, Sweeper 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.56
K% Δ+0.102
Sample23.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings32.8----
Batters Faced144----
K%20.9%16.2% to 28.1%+/- 5.9%
BB%9.7%5.7% to 14.3%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%24.4%19.1% to 31.5%+/- 6.2%
HR/91.180.24 to 1.93+/- 0.85
xwOBA Against0.3220.246 to 0.369+/- 0.061
Barrel% Allowed6.8%2.0% to 10.0%+/- 4.0%
ERA4.092.40 to 6.94+/- 2.27
FIP3.942.44 to 5.25+/- 1.41
WHIP1.4001.028 to 1.732+/- 0.352
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

249 career BF

xwOBA0.240
K%20.7%
BB%8.0%
Barrel3.7%
vs RHH

356 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%18.5%
BB%9.1%
Barrel5.1%