Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 36%, Changeup 28%, Slider 18%.
Pitcher projection / MIN · 2026
Ober, Bailey
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team MIN
Archetype Volatile contact
Age 31
Status IL-15
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.25 |
| ERA current pace | 3.92 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.06 |
| Observed weight | 57% |
ERA
3.11
3.56
4.06
4.56
5.01
FIP
4.40
4.61
4.84
5.06
5.27
K%
15.1%
16.3%
17.7%
19.1%
20.3%
BB%
5.2%
5.9%
6.6%
7.3%
7.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.2%
72
Barrel allowed9.4%
29
Fastball velo88.6
2
Hard-hit allowed33.9%
80
K%15.3%
9
-31 vs proj
Whiff%18.3%
15
-37 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.323
42
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+102
51
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
6Pitches
2026Season
37%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CH | 36.1% | 338 | 106 | qualified |
| FB | 31.9% | 298 | 104 | qualified |
| SL | 26.5% | 248 | 98 | qualified |
| SI | 3.2% | 30 | 99 | limited sample |
| CB | 2.2% | 21 | 105 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.30 |
| K% Δ | -0.058 |
| Sample | 74.7 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 143.8 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 597 | -- | -- |
| K% | 21.0% | 17.5% to 27.4% | +/- 5.0% |
| BB% | 6.1% | 4.0% to 7.8% | +/- 1.9% |
| Whiff% | 23.3% | 20.6% to 28.6% | +/- 4.0% |
| HR/9 | 1.62 | 1.01 to 2.24 | +/- 0.61 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.321 | 0.278 to 0.334 | +/- 0.028 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 9.1% | 6.1% to 12.6% | +/- 3.3% |
| ERA | 4.22 | 3.31 to 5.96 | +/- 1.33 |
| FIP | 4.41 | 3.39 to 4.60 | +/- 0.61 |
| WHIP | 1.196 | 0.956 to 1.417 | +/- 0.230 |
vs LHH
1285 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.283 |
| K% | 19.9% |
| BB% | 5.1% |
| Barrel | 8.7% |
vs RHH
1375 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.292 |
| K% | 23.0% |
| BB% | 5.1% |
| Barrel | 10.2% |