Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIN · 2026

Ober, Bailey

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.0% K%
Range
17.5% to 27.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIN Archetype Volatile contact Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
44
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
39
Arsenal6 metrics
56
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.25
ERA current pace4.39
ERA rolling p504.33
Observed weight59%
ERA
3.38 3.83 4.33 4.83 5.29
FIP
4.38 4.59 4.82 5.05 5.25
K%
15.4% 16.6% 18.0% 19.3% 20.5%
BB%
5.2% 5.8% 6.5% 7.2% 7.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.28
56
ERA4.39
40
BB%7.1%
74
K%15.9%
10 -29 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.322
41
Barrel allowed9.3%
27
Fastball velo88.6
2
Hard-hit allowed34.5%
80
Whiff%18.6%
15 -38 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Changeup Stuff+106
79
Fastball Stuff+104
61
Mithrandir Stuff+102
51
Slider Stuff+99
30
Curveball Stuff+105
88
Sinker Stuff+99
26
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ober, Bailey · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.322 2026-07-05: 0.3232026-07-06: 0.3232026-07-07: 0.3232026-07-08: 0.3232026-07-09: 0.3232026-07-10: 0.3232026-07-11: 0.3222026-07-12: 0.3222026-07-13: 0.3222026-07-14: 0.3222026-07-15: 0.3222026-07-16: 0.322 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ober, Bailey · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ober, Bailey · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 36.5%4-Seam Fastball: 30.7%Slider: 16.0%Sweeper: 10.4%Sinker: 4.0%Curveball: 2.3% CH37% · 83 mphprimary pitch CH 37%FF 31%SL 16%ST 10%SI 4%CU 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ober, Bailey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Changeup: 37% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 82.9 mphCH83 mph4-Seam Fastball: 31% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 88.5 mphFF89 mphSlider: 16% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 82.6 mphSL83 mphSweeper: 10% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 76.6 mphST77 mphSinker: 4% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 88.9 mphSI89 mphCurveball: 2% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 73.0 mphCU73 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 36.1% 338 106 qualified
FB 31.9% 298 104 qualified
SL 26.5% 248 99 qualified
SI 3.2% 30 99 limited sample
CB 2.2% 21 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 36%, Changeup 28%, Slider 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.17
K% Δ-0.051
Sample79.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings145.1----
Batters Faced602----
K%21.0%17.5% to 27.4%+/- 5.0%
BB%6.1%4.0% to 7.8%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%23.3%20.6% to 28.6%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.621.01 to 2.24+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.3210.278 to 0.334+/- 0.028
Barrel% Allowed9.1%6.1% to 12.6%+/- 3.3%
ERA4.223.31 to 5.96+/- 1.33
FIP4.413.39 to 4.60+/- 0.61
WHIP1.1960.956 to 1.417+/- 0.230
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1285 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%19.9%
BB%5.1%
Barrel8.7%
vs RHH

1375 career BF

xwOBA0.292
K%23.0%
BB%5.1%
Barrel10.2%