Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIN · 2026

Ober, Bailey

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.0% K%
Range
17.5% to 27.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIN Archetype Volatile contact Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
43
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
33
Arsenal6 metrics
57
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.25
ERA current pace4.21
ERA rolling p504.22
Observed weight71%
ERA
3.20 3.68 4.22 4.76 5.24
FIP
4.21 4.43 4.67 4.92 5.14
K%
15.8% 16.7% 17.7% 18.8% 19.7%
BB%
5.5% 6.1% 6.6% 7.2% 7.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
48
ERA4.21
46
BB%7.0%
77
K%16.5%
13 -30 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.330
30
Barrel allowed9.6%
17
Fastball velo88.2
1
Hard-hit allowed38.4%
50
Whiff%18.6%
16 -40 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+106
80
Fastball Stuff+104
66
Mithrandir Stuff+103
58
Slider Stuff+101
44
Curveball Stuff+103
69
Sinker Stuff+99
27
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ober, Bailey · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.330 2026-09-13: 0.3272026-09-14: 0.3272026-09-18: 0.3272026-09-19: 0.3272026-09-20: 0.3272026-09-21: 0.3252026-09-22: 0.3252026-09-23: 0.3252026-09-24: 0.3252026-09-25: 0.3252026-09-26: 0.3252026-09-27: 0.330 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ober, Bailey · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ober, Bailey · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 33.4%4-Seam Fastball: 31.1%Slider: 17.8%Sweeper: 12.4%Sinker: 3.6%Curveball: 1.7% CH33% · 83 mphprimary pitch CH 33%FF 31%SL 18%ST 12%SI 4%CU 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ober, Bailey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Changeup: 33% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 82.6 mphCH83 mph4-Seam Fastball: 31% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 88.1 mphFF88 mphSlider: 18% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 82.5 mphSL82 mphSweeper: 12% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 76.1 mphST76 mphSinker: 4% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 88.8 mphSI89 mphCurveball: 2% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 73.0 mphCU73 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 34.1% 481 106 qualified
FB 31.7% 447 104 qualified
SL 29.4% 415 101 qualified
SI 3.0% 42 99 limited sample
CB 1.8% 26 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 36%, Changeup 28%, Slider 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.01
K% Δ-0.045
Sample139.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings143.2----
Batters Faced594----
K%21.0%17.5% to 27.4%+/- 5.0%
BB%6.1%4.0% to 7.8%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%23.3%20.6% to 28.6%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.621.01 to 2.24+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.3210.278 to 0.334+/- 0.028
Barrel% Allowed9.1%6.1% to 12.6%+/- 3.3%
ERA4.223.31 to 5.96+/- 1.33
FIP4.413.39 to 4.60+/- 0.61
WHIP1.1960.956 to 1.417+/- 0.230
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1285 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%19.9%
BB%5.1%
Barrel8.7%
vs RHH

1375 career BF

xwOBA0.292
K%23.0%
BB%5.1%
Barrel10.2%