Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / WSH · 2026

Littell, Zack

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.8% K%
Range
15.9% to 23.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team WSH Archetype Volatile contact Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
28
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
19
Arsenal4 metrics
27
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.26
ERA current pace4.90
ERA rolling p504.66
Observed weight63%
ERA
3.61 4.11 4.66 5.22 5.72
FIP
5.01 5.27 5.56 5.86 6.12
K%
14.2% 15.2% 16.2% 17.3% 18.2%
BB%
5.4% 6.0% 6.6% 7.3% 7.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.39
37
ERA4.90
27
BB%7.7%
64 -31 vs proj
K%14.9%
6
xwOBA allowed0.381
4
Barrel allowed11.1%
11 -21 vs proj
Fastball velo91.5
11
Hard-hit allowed45.6%
10
Whiff%15.9%
4
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+97
19
Mithrandir Stuff+99
25
Slider Stuff+97
20
Sinker Stuff+102
46
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Littell, Zack · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.381 2026-07-05: 0.3902026-07-06: 0.3842026-07-07: 0.3842026-07-08: 0.3842026-07-09: 0.3842026-07-10: 0.3842026-07-11: 0.3842026-07-12: 0.3812026-07-13: 0.3812026-07-14: 0.3812026-07-15: 0.3812026-07-16: 0.381 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Littell, Zack · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Littell, Zack · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 29.3%4-Seam Fastball: 27.9%Split-Finger: 19.5%Sinker: 14.2%Sweeper: 9.0%Pitch Out: 0.1% SL29% · 88 mphprimary pitch SL 29%FF 28%FS 20%SI 14%ST 9%PO 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Littell, Zack · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 29% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 88.0 mphSL88 mph4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 91.6 mphFF92 mphSplit-Finger: 20% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 83.8 mphFS84 mphSinker: 14% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 91.3 mphSI91 mphSweeper: 9% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 79.2 mphST79 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 88.8 mphPO89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 47.1% 343 97 qualified
FB 35.0% 255 97 qualified
SI 17.9% 130 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 28%, Split-Finger 27%, 4-Seam Fastball 24%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.34
K% Δ-0.029
Sample90.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings145.4----
Batters Faced609----
K%17.8%15.9% to 23.5%+/- 3.8%
BB%5.0%2.9% to 6.7%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%18.8%16.9% to 23.8%+/- 3.5%
HR/91.691.05 to 2.27+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.3460.282 to 0.352+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.9%6.7% to 12.3%+/- 2.8%
ERA5.242.65 to 5.55+/- 1.45
FIP4.563.34 to 4.87+/- 0.76
WHIP1.3341.019 to 1.487+/- 0.234
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1239 career BF

xwOBA0.304
K%17.6%
BB%4.4%
Barrel8.6%
vs RHH

1419 career BF

xwOBA0.305
K%17.9%
BB%3.7%
Barrel9.5%