Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAD · 2026

Lauer, Eric

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.9% K%
Range
16.6% to 27.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAD Archetype Balanced starter Age 31 Status IL-60
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
34
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
29
Arsenal6 metrics
30
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.97
ERA current pace5.23
ERA rolling p504.80
Observed weight66%
ERA
3.37 4.05 4.80 5.56 6.24
FIP
4.65 5.04 5.48 5.92 6.32
K%
15.1% 16.2% 17.4% 18.7% 19.8%
BB%
6.0% 6.6% 7.3% 8.0% 8.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
50
ERA5.23
22
BB%7.5%
71
K%15.4%
7 -42 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.342
21 -20 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.0%
8 -20 vs proj
Fastball velo91.1
8
Hard-hit allowed35.9%
70
Whiff%15.4%
4 -18 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Cutter Stuff+97
16
Fastball Stuff+99
26
Mithrandir Stuff+98
20
Changeup Stuff+97
21
Curveball Stuff+104
82
Slider Stuff+96
16
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lauer, Eric · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.342 2026-09-13: 0.3422026-09-14: 0.3422026-09-18: 0.3422026-09-19: 0.3422026-09-20: 0.3422026-09-21: 0.3422026-09-22: 0.3422026-09-23: 0.3422026-09-24: 0.3422026-09-25: 0.3422026-09-26: 0.3422026-09-27: 0.342 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lauer, Eric · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 15%15%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lauer, Eric · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.8%Cutter: 22.9%Changeup: 14.8%Curveball: 12.3%Slider: 8.2% FF42% · 91 mphprimary pitch FF 42%FC 23%CH 15%CU 12%SL 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lauer, Eric · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 42% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 91.1 mphFF91 mphCutter: 23% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 87.6 mphFC88 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 84.6 mphCH85 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 75.9 mphCU76 mphSlider: 8% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 82.8 mphSL83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 44.0% 477 99 qualified
FC 19.9% 216 97 qualified
CH 16.3% 177 97 limited sample
CB 11.0% 119 104 limited sample
SL 8.8% 95 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.265 vs 0.286 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 46%, Cutter 20%, Curveball 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.04
K% Δ-0.066
Sample106.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.5----
Batters Faced291----
K%21.9%16.6% to 27.3%+/- 5.4%
BB%7.3%5.3% to 10.4%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%19.3%14.5% to 23.8%+/- 4.6%
HR/91.591.07 to 2.47+/- 0.70
xwOBA Against0.3200.273 to 0.348+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed8.9%6.4% to 12.5%+/- 3.1%
ERA4.191.89 to 5.76+/- 1.93
FIP4.283.25 to 5.50+/- 1.12
WHIP1.2601.031 to 1.572+/- 0.271
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

742 career BF

xwOBA0.265
K%20.0%
BB%6.3%
Barrel7.5%
vs RHH

2432 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%19.6%
BB%6.9%
Barrel9.5%