Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Kinley, Tyler

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
23.5% K%
Range
16.9% to 30.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.03
ERA current pace3.57
ERA rolling p503.88
Observed weight32%
ERA
1.99 2.89 3.88 4.87 5.77
FIP
2.33 3.11 3.97 4.82 5.60
K%
19.6% 22.0% 24.6% 27.3% 29.6%
BB%
6.7% 8.2% 9.9% 11.6% 13.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.9%
63 +37 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.5%
77 +38 vs proj
Fastball velo94.6
55
Hard-hit allowed27.4%
97
K%26.3%
76 +20 vs proj
Whiff%23.7%
57 -25 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.264
88 +16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+108
89
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 65%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kinley, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3052026-05-19: 0.2962026-05-21: 0.2922026-05-23: 0.2832026-05-24: 0.2742026-05-25: 0.2742026-05-26: 0.2742026-05-28: 0.2742026-05-29: 0.2742026-05-30: 0.2692026-05-31: 0.2662026-06-01: 0.264 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kinley, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 41%41%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 20%20%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 27%27% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kinley, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 65.4%Curveball: 17.2%4-Seam Fastball: 17.2%Sinker: 0.2% MIX SL 65%CU 17%FF 17%SI 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kinley, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot SL: HB -0.0, IVB 2.8SLCU: HB 0.2, IVB 4.2CUFF: HB -0.0, IVB 1.2FFSI: HB 1.1, IVB 1.4SI horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 67.2% 252 108 qualified
CB 16.8% 63 107 limited sample
FB 16.0% 60 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.322 vs 0.292 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 64%, 4-Seam Fastball 23%, Curveball 12%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.77
K% Δ+0.028
Sample27.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.9----
Batters Faced174----
K%23.5%16.9% to 30.9%+/- 7.0%
BB%10.8%6.4% to 15.3%+/- 4.5%
Whiff%28.0%23.4% to 35.8%+/- 6.2%
HR/91.090.35 to 2.14+/- 0.89
xwOBA Against0.2890.232 to 0.365+/- 0.067
Barrel% Allowed8.3%4.2% to 12.5%+/- 4.2%
ERA4.342.16 to 7.19+/- 2.51
FIP4.152.55 to 6.90+/- 2.17
WHIP1.2610.925 to 1.725+/- 0.400
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

687 career BF

xwOBA0.322
K%20.2%
BB%12.9%
Barrel9.7%
vs RHH

807 career BF

xwOBA0.292
K%21.1%
BB%9.3%
Barrel7.3%