Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Kinley, Tyler

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
23.5% K%
Range
16.9% to 30.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
60
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
65
Arsenal4 metrics
71
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.10
ERA current pace3.44
ERA rolling p503.77
Observed weight50%
ERA
1.95 2.81 3.77 4.73 5.59
FIP
3.00 3.73 4.53 5.34 6.07
K%
18.6% 20.4% 22.5% 24.5% 26.4%
BB%
8.3% 9.5% 10.9% 12.3% 13.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.14
81
ERA3.44
71
BB%11.0%
26
K%21.1%
43 -18 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.285
81
Barrel allowed6.4%
67 +32 vs proj
Fastball velo94.3
50
Hard-hit allowed27.6%
99
Whiff%25.4%
72 -15 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Mithrandir Stuff+106
82
Slider Stuff+107
88
Curveball Stuff+105
91
Fastball Stuff+98
24
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 66%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kinley, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.285 2026-09-12: 0.2872026-09-13: 0.2882026-09-14: 0.2882026-09-18: 0.2862026-09-19: 0.2822026-09-20: 0.2822026-09-21: 0.2822026-09-22: 0.2822026-09-23: 0.2802026-09-24: 0.2852026-09-25: 0.2852026-09-26: 0.285 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kinley, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 28%28% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kinley, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 66.2%Curveball: 16.7%4-Seam Fastball: 15.6%Sinker: 1.2%Changeup: 0.3% SL66% · 87 mphprimary pitch SL 66%CU 17%FF 16%SI 1%CH 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kinley, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Slider: 66% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.1 mphSL87 mphCurveball: 17% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 83.1 mphCU83 mph4-Seam Fastball: 16% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.4 mphFF94 mphSinker: 1% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 94.3 mphSI94 mphChangeup: 0% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 86.6 mphCH87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 69.0% 412 107 qualified
CB 16.4% 98 105 limited sample
FB 13.9% 83 98 limited sample
SI 0.7% 4 81 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.322 vs 0.292 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 64%, 4-Seam Fastball 23%, Curveball 12%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.95
K% Δ-0.024
Sample57.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings38.8----
Batters Faced169----
K%23.5%16.9% to 30.9%+/- 7.0%
BB%10.8%6.4% to 15.3%+/- 4.5%
Whiff%28.0%23.4% to 35.8%+/- 6.2%
HR/91.090.36 to 2.15+/- 0.90
xwOBA Against0.2940.236 to 0.371+/- 0.068
Barrel% Allowed8.4%4.2% to 12.5%+/- 4.2%
ERA4.392.18 to 7.32+/- 2.57
FIP4.152.55 to 6.90+/- 2.17
WHIP1.2700.932 to 1.737+/- 0.403
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

687 career BF

xwOBA0.322
K%20.2%
BB%12.9%
Barrel9.7%
vs RHH

807 career BF

xwOBA0.292
K%21.1%
BB%9.3%
Barrel7.3%