Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CWS · 2026

Kay, Anthony

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.6% K%
Range
8.2% to 21.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team CWS Archetype Volatile contact Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
36
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
39
Arsenal6 metrics
45
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.94
ERA current pace4.41
ERA rolling p504.29
Observed weight75%
ERA
2.07 3.13 4.29 5.46 6.51
FIP
2.66 3.50 4.42 5.35 6.18
K%
16.8% 17.8% 18.9% 20.1% 21.1%
BB%
6.6% 7.2% 8.0% 8.7% 9.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.42
33
ERA4.41
41
BB%7.9%
63 +22 vs proj
K%18.3%
24
xwOBA allowed0.342
20
Barrel allowed8.9%
27 -20 vs proj
Fastball velo95.6
69
Hard-hit allowed40.6%
34
Whiff%21.2%
38
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+100
37
Cutter Stuff+99
25
Fastball Stuff+105
68
Mithrandir Stuff+102
48
Sinker Stuff+104
65
Slider Stuff+99
25
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 23%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kay, Anthony · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.342 2026-09-12: 0.3412026-09-13: 0.3412026-09-14: 0.3412026-09-18: 0.3402026-09-19: 0.3402026-09-20: 0.3402026-09-21: 0.3402026-09-22: 0.3402026-09-23: 0.3422026-09-24: 0.3422026-09-25: 0.3422026-09-26: 0.342 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kay, Anthony · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kay, Anthony · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 23.0%4-Seam Fastball: 22.2%Sinker: 17.8%Cutter: 17.3%Changeup: 13.8%Slider: 5.9% ST23% · 83 mphprimary pitch ST 23%FF 22%SI 18%FC 17%CH 14%SL 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kay, Anthony · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 23% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 82.6 mphST83 mph4-Seam Fastball: 22% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 95.8 mphFF96 mphSinker: 18% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 95.3 mphSI95 mphCutter: 17% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 91.6 mphFC92 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.0 mphCH86 mphSlider: 6% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 86.3 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 27.0% 465 99 qualified
FB 23.4% 403 105 qualified
SI 17.9% 308 104 qualified
FC 17.4% 300 99 qualified
CH 14.3% 247 100 qualified
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.45
K% Δ-0.023
Sample159.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings32.6----
Batters Faced142----
K%20.6%8.2% to 21.6%+/- 6.7%
BB%9.7%3.2% to 11.6%+/- 4.2%
Whiff%21.4%10.4% to 24.6%+/- 7.1%
HR/91.480.26 to 1.61+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.3260.141 to 0.399+/- 0.129
Barrel% Allowed7.6%2.2% to 10.9%+/- 4.4%
ERA3.960.46 to 6.07+/- 2.80
FIP4.421.76 to 6.19+/- 2.22
WHIP1.2500.437 to 1.633+/- 0.598
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

148 career BF

xwOBA0.129
K%9.8%
BB%4.8%
Barrel3.2%
vs RHH

293 career BF

xwOBA0.141
K%8.8%
BB%5.1%
Barrel4.2%