Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 14 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Alexander, Tyler

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.6% K%
Range
16.8% to 25.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-14
50
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
50
Arsenal6 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-14
ERA preseason4.72
ERA current pace3.21
ERA rolling p504.20
Observed weight35%
ERA
2.80 3.46 4.20 4.93 5.60
FIP
3.10 3.55 4.04 4.54 4.99
K%
16.4% 17.9% 19.5% 21.1% 22.6%
BB%
4.8% 5.7% 6.7% 7.6% 8.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-14
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.43
30
ERA3.21
66
BB%7.8%
65 -16 vs proj
K%17.2%
14
xwOBA allowed0.285
77 +36 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.2%
94 +56 vs proj
Fastball velo91.1
7
Hard-hit allowed32.3%
89
Whiff%15.6%
5
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-14
Changeup Stuff+100
30
Cutter Stuff+99
28
Fastball Stuff+101
42
Mithrandir Stuff+103
58
Sinker Stuff+105
74
Slider Stuff+109
92
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 26%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Alexander, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.285 2026-06-03: 0.2812026-06-04: 0.2812026-06-05: 0.2812026-06-06: 0.2812026-06-07: 0.2812026-06-08: 0.2852026-06-09: 0.2852026-06-10: 0.2852026-06-11: 0.2852026-06-12: 0.2852026-06-13: 0.2852026-06-14: 0.285 2026-06-03 2026-06-14 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Alexander, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 41%41%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 20%20%First pitch strike: 58%58%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alexander, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 25.9%Changeup: 25.5%Sinker: 25.5%Sweeper: 15.0%4-Seam Fastball: 8.1% FC26% · 88 mphprimary pitch FC 26%CH 25%SI 25%ST 15%FF 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alexander, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Cutter: 26% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 87.8 mphFC88 mphChangeup: 25% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 84.2 mphCH84 mphSinker: 25% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.0 mphSI91 mphSweeper: 15% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 79.7 mphST80 mph4-Seam Fastball: 8% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 91.5 mphFF92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 26.5% 112 105 limited sample
FC 26.2% 111 99 limited sample
CH 24.1% 102 100 limited sample
SL 15.1% 64 109 limited sample
FB 8.0% 34 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.296 vs 0.328 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 26%, Sweeper 22%, Cutter 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.67
K% Δ-0.015
Sample28.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings73.5----
Batters Faced320----
K%18.6%16.8% to 25.1%+/- 4.1%
BB%6.3%4.2% to 8.8%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%18.8%16.4% to 24.0%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.581.08 to 2.32+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3240.283 to 0.366+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.0% to 11.3%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.883.09 to 6.88+/- 1.89
FIP4.413.05 to 5.61+/- 1.28
WHIP1.4071.103 to 1.682+/- 0.290
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

704 career BF

xwOBA0.296
K%18.9%
BB%4.3%
Barrel7.8%
vs RHH

1759 career BF

xwOBA0.328
K%18.7%
BB%6.3%
Barrel8.1%