Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 61%, Sweeper 34%, Changeup 6%.
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026
Manaea, Sean
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team NYM
Archetype Volatile contact
Age 34
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.07 |
| ERA current pace | 5.56 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.69 |
| Observed weight | 42% |
ERA
3.70
4.17
4.69
5.21
5.68
FIP
2.95
3.22
3.52
3.82
4.09
K%
21.1%
22.7%
24.5%
26.2%
27.8%
BB%
6.3%
7.1%
8.1%
9.0%
9.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.7%
50
-19 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.1%
34
Fastball velo90.0
4
Hard-hit allowed38.2%
56
K%24.4%
62
Whiff%22.5%
46
xwOBA allowed0.330
37
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+99
30
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
5Pitches
2026Season
39%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 38.8% | 251 | 99 | qualified |
| SL | 32.8% | 212 | 97 | qualified |
| SI | 17.8% | 115 | 104 | limited sample |
| CH | 5.4% | 35 | 98 | limited sample |
| FC | 5.3% | 34 | 99 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +1.41 |
| K% Δ | +0.010 |
| Sample | 38.0 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 72.5 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 305 | -- | -- |
| K% | 23.5% | 20.1% to 29.7% | +/- 4.8% |
| BB% | 7.4% | 5.3% to 9.9% | +/- 2.3% |
| Whiff% | 23.2% | 19.2% to 27.2% | +/- 4.0% |
| HR/9 | 1.26 | 0.87 to 1.94 | +/- 0.53 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.319 | 0.281 to 0.336 | +/- 0.028 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.5% | 6.2% to 11.2% | +/- 2.5% |
| ERA | 4.16 | 2.98 to 5.74 | +/- 1.38 |
| FIP | 3.93 | 2.93 to 4.52 | +/- 0.80 |
| WHIP | 1.204 | 0.971 to 1.420 | +/- 0.225 |
vs LHH
1315 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.276 |
| K% | 24.6% |
| BB% | 5.7% |
| Barrel | 7.0% |
vs RHH
4211 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.294 |
| K% | 23.0% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 8.3% |