Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

Manaea, Sean

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.5% K%
Range
20.1% to 29.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Volatile contact Age 34 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
53
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
43
Arsenal6 metrics
32
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.07
ERA current pace4.56
ERA rolling p504.36
Observed weight59%
ERA
3.37 3.84 4.36 4.88 5.35
FIP
3.20 3.47 3.77 4.08 4.35
K%
20.8% 22.0% 23.4% 24.8% 26.0%
BB%
5.8% 6.5% 7.2% 8.0% 8.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.26
59
ERA4.56
35
BB%7.0%
77
K%22.7%
51
xwOBA allowed0.318
44
Barrel allowed8.2%
41
Fastball velo90.3
5
Hard-hit allowed39.8%
44
Whiff%20.2%
27 -26 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+100
35
Mithrandir Stuff+100
37
Slider Stuff+98
23
Changeup Stuff+98
24
Cutter Stuff+96
10
Sinker Stuff+104
66
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Manaea, Sean · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.318 2026-07-05: 0.3132026-07-06: 0.3152026-07-07: 0.3152026-07-08: 0.3152026-07-09: 0.3152026-07-10: 0.3152026-07-11: 0.3182026-07-12: 0.3182026-07-13: 0.3182026-07-14: 0.3182026-07-15: 0.3182026-07-16: 0.318 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Manaea, Sean · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Manaea, Sean · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 35.0%Sweeper: 31.3%Sinker: 20.3%Cutter: 9.3%Changeup: 4.0% FF35% · 90 mphprimary pitch FF 35%ST 31%SI 20%FC 9%CH 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Manaea, Sean · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 35% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 90.5 mphFF90 mphSweeper: 31% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 75.3 mphST75 mphSinker: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 90.0 mphSI90 mphCutter: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 84.0 mphFC84 mphChangeup: 4% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 83.1 mphCH83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 36.3% 347 100 qualified
SL 31.8% 304 98 qualified
SI 20.5% 196 104 limited sample
FC 7.1% 68 96 limited sample
CH 4.4% 42 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 61%, Sweeper 34%, Changeup 6%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.40
K% Δ-0.008
Sample78.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings72.2----
Batters Faced304----
K%23.5%20.1% to 29.7%+/- 4.8%
BB%7.4%5.3% to 9.9%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%23.2%19.2% to 27.2%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.260.87 to 1.94+/- 0.53
xwOBA Against0.3190.281 to 0.336+/- 0.028
Barrel% Allowed8.5%6.2% to 11.2%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.152.98 to 5.74+/- 1.38
FIP3.932.93 to 4.52+/- 0.80
WHIP1.2040.971 to 1.420+/- 0.225
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1315 career BF

xwOBA0.276
K%24.6%
BB%5.7%
Barrel7.0%
vs RHH

4211 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%23.0%
BB%7.1%
Barrel8.3%