Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Finnegan, Kyle

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.1% K%
Range
15.9% to 29.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
40
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
49
Arsenal3 metrics
35
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.22
ERA current pace2.13
ERA rolling p503.31
Observed weight43%
ERA
1.76 2.49 3.31 4.13 4.87
FIP
3.37 3.81 4.30 4.78 5.22
K%
16.3% 18.3% 20.5% 22.8% 24.8%
BB%
8.1% 9.3% 10.6% 11.9% 13.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.49
20
ERA2.13
95
BB%13.7%
9 -47 vs proj
K%19.1%
28
xwOBA allowed0.317
46
Barrel allowed6.6%
67 +27 vs proj
Fastball velo96.3
78
Hard-hit allowed42.1%
29
Whiff%25.2%
67 +32 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+102
44
Mithrandir Stuff+101
45
Slider Stuff+96
16
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 53%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Finnegan, Kyle · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.317 2026-07-06: 0.3222026-07-07: 0.3222026-07-08: 0.3222026-07-09: 0.3192026-07-10: 0.3192026-07-11: 0.3172026-07-12: 0.3172026-07-13: 0.3172026-07-14: 0.3172026-07-15: 0.3172026-07-16: 0.3172026-07-17: 0.317 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Finnegan, Kyle · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Finnegan, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 53.4%Split-Finger: 32.0%Slider: 14.6% FF53% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 53%FS 32%SL 15% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Finnegan, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 53% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 96.3 mphFF96 mphSplit-Finger: 32% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 87.4 mphFS87 mphSlider: 15% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 86.0 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 83.5% 269 102 qualified
SL 16.5% 53 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 56%, Split-Finger 40%, Slider 4%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.66
K% Δ-0.019
Sample42.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings40.4----
Batters Faced170----
K%21.1%15.9% to 29.7%+/- 6.9%
BB%8.4%5.4% to 12.5%+/- 3.5%
Whiff%21.1%17.5% to 27.3%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.210.71 to 2.13+/- 0.71
xwOBA Against0.3170.253 to 0.375+/- 0.061
Barrel% Allowed8.3%5.2% to 12.9%+/- 3.8%
ERA3.792.31 to 6.68+/- 2.18
FIP3.952.98 to 5.57+/- 1.29
WHIP1.2691.009 to 1.713+/- 0.352
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

717 career BF

xwOBA0.304
K%20.0%
BB%9.4%
Barrel9.0%
vs RHH

849 career BF

xwOBA0.295
K%19.6%
BB%6.8%
Barrel8.8%